Timeform UK SmartPlays: Thursday January 16

We start in the day's big race, the Somerset National (14:20) at Wincanton. In truth, the race is more in line with its Class 3 grading than its grand title, so it could well be worth chancing Red Rocco against some ostensibly more in-form rivals. He actually returned with a good effort, finishing second to Nuts N Bolts at Haydock. On his next start in the Welsh National, an altogether tougher test, Red Rocco was 8 lb out of the weights to compound matters and perhaps unsurprisingly failed to feature. A generally lazy sort, Red Rocco is well suited to conditions like those that prevail today and, off the same mark as when runner-up in that stronger race at Haydock, is evidently handicapped to go close.

The Cheltenham fixture on New Year's Day was run in such attritional conditions that you'd forgive just about any horse a poor run; doubly so when you have a horse that was stepping up in trip. It's therefore easy to interpret the 6 lb drop handed to British debutant Astigos (14:30 Market Rasen) as rather lenient. He admittedly had plenty of racing in France, but he's  only just joined the flying Venetia Williams yard and need only come back to his form over the Channel to look very favourably treated from a BHA mark of 115. The 21-furlong trip at a sharper track ought to be a lot more suitable for Astigos, who can do his bit for his yard's continued hot streak.

Handicapping is also the major argument behind our final selection. The 14:50 at Wincanton is a strong event, so we need some more concrete evidence that in Astigos' case. As it is, Ut Majeur Aulmes brings good handicap form to the contest. Given an education above all in novices, Ut Majeur Aulmes shaped as though unfit on his reappearance but showed the benefit next time, winning in good style at Uttoxeter last month. That form has been boosted several times since, with three in behind winning handicaps off similar marks on their next start. It all makes even a 10-lb rise for Ut Majeur Aulmes' success that day look on the lenient side, while all indications are that there's more to come, too.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Red Rocco @ 5.79/2 in the 14:20 Wincanton
Back Astigos @ 4.67/2 in the 14:30 Market Rasen
Back Ut Majeur Aulmes @ 4.67/2 in the 14:50 Wincanton