Timeform UK SmartPlays: Thursday February 14

We start in Kelso's 14:10, an amateur riders' handicap chase over just shy of three miles. It's far from the strongest 0-135 you're likely to see; Rolecarr and Or de Grugy, first and second respectively in a C&D similar event back in December are the most interesting. The market is struggling to separate them at present, though our preference is for Or de Grugy. He's come back to something approaching his best since joining Nick Alexander before the start of this season, winning over C&D and at Musselburgh in late-autumn before his second to Rolecarr last time. Or de Grugy hit the last that day, while his rider also dropped the whip on the run-in, so the margin of 12 lengths is probably exaggerating the difference between the pair and the resulting 9 lb pull could well be enough to see Or de Grugy turn the tables. One concern is that he is without the assistance of regular rider, leading lady Lucy Alexander, but there's enough give in his price to allay those fears.

It's a rare foray into the choppy waters of hunter chases for our next SmartPlay, in a race over the same distance as the 14:10 held two hours later. Red Kingdom's withdrawal leaves it as essentially a two-horse race between Sacred Mountain and Tartan Snow. The latter won the corresponding race to the 14:10 last season, but he's been largely struggling since, something which can't be said for chief rival Sacred Mountain. He ran right up to his best last time, faring well faced with a stiff task against the near-useful Cottage Oak, closing all the way to the line as he took second. With nothing else in this race being anywhere near that standard and, as has been established, his main threat not in much of the way of form, Sacred Mountain looks to have an excellent opportunity today.

We're switching to the polytrack for our final selection, which runs in the 19:30 at Kempton, but the name will still be familiar to jumps fans. Murcar is a dual winner over hurdles, but he was a fair Flat handicapper before that and has returned to the level better than ever this year, winning at Wolverhampton over a similar trip and runner-up there last time behind another improver. Raised just 2 lb for that, he's Timeform top-rated for this contest and is fancied to maintain his fine recent run with a win.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Or de Grugy @ 4.84/1 in the 14:10 Kelso
Back Sacred Mountain @ 2.0421/20 in the 16:10 Kelso
Back Murcar @ 6.611/2 in the 19:30 Kempton

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