Timeform UK SmartPlays: Saturday January 5

We start in South Wales, in a handicap chase held 70 minutes before the Welsh National at 14:10. It's nowhere near as strong as the day's feature race, especially with doubts surrounding a number of those declared, so there could be mileage in taking a punt on Cadoudalas. Trained by Richard Lee, Cadoudalas has been shaping with encouragement all season, runner-up from a 2 lb higher mark on his reappearance and looking ahead of his mark on his last two starts, simply finding his stamina stretched over trips around three miles, including at this course. Returned to an extended 19 furlongs today, he is now on what looks to be a winning mark and, with everything now seemingly in his favour, looks a value play at morning prices.

We go to Sandown for our next selection, in the Tolworth Hurdle at 14:25. It's a well-contested Grade 1 that the market is struggling to get a firm handle on at this stage, but there's a strong possibility that it underestimates the chances of Court Minstrel. But for a troubled passage in a messy race at Cheltenham last time, Court Minstrel would be two from two over hurdles and no doubt favourite for this, but as it is he could only finish three lengths third to Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham last time. They were in turn split by River Maigue, an easy winner at Kempton on Boxing Day, so there really is no disgrace in Court Minstrel finishing where he did even before factoring in his travails through that contest. Accordingly, he still sports a Timeform 'large P' and, emerging top on our figures in any case, rates as a real value prospect.

We complete our mad half-hour at 14:40, when there's a chance for Big Fella Thanks to gain redemption at Wincanton. He was last seen in the Becher Chase, in which he looked all over the winner jumping the last before finding less than looked likely for pressure, eventually finishing third to Hello Bud. That was by no means the first time he's underwhelmed in a finish, but the fact he's been both left on the same BHA mark and dropped five furlongs in trip today means he's worth another chance to show just how well handicapped he is. This race is surely weaker than the Becher (for all a 14-year-old won that race), with none of the likely market principals entirely solid, so this looks as good a chance as Big Fella Thanks will get to notch a win for his new connections.

Timeform UK SmartPlays:
Back Cadoudalas @ 10.09/1 in the 14:10 at Chepstow
Back Court Minstrel @ 6.611/2 in the 14:25 at Sandown
Back Big Fella Thanks @ 6.611/2 in the 14:40 at Wincanton