Timeform UK SmartPlays

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Saturday January 18

Two of Saturday's bets come from Haydock
Two of Saturday's bets come from Haydock

"...Sire de Grugy’s price of 2.3411/8 reflects a difference in consistency more than ability between him and his rivals, therefore taking a chance on one of them is the more enticing approach."

Haydock and Ascot split some excellent racing between them on Saturday, as well as Timeform's three best bets...

Five useful sorts have been declared for the 21-furlong graduation chase at Haydock (12:55). Context is key, however, and considering that Trustan Times is belatedly resuming a career over fences, Maggio ran at Musselburgh on Friday and both Fill The Power and Rival d'Estruval are making their first starts since the Scottish National last April putting our faith in Benvolio makes increasing sense. 

We might well have taken Benvolio's side anyway as it's suspected that his Newbury handicap form, when he pulled clear with Midnight Prayer in the straight, is notably strong.  Solid jumping and a relatively straightforward attitude are also traits Benvolio has demonstrated in his time with the Nicholls yard, so we can be confident of him doing himself justice here.

Staying at Haydock, we tackled a seemingly resurrected Peter Marsh Chase (15:15); resurrected because this year's renewal looks more like one from the glory days of the 1980's and 1990's than the smart handicap it has essentially been this century. Several of these could feasibly line up in the Grand National down the line, but what used to set this race apart was its tendency to yield Gold Cup challengers and one with that potential lurks in this field. 

Katenko's progress from around this time last year has been arrested, though not through any real fault of his own. First he suffered from colic, then fell (when still tanking) in the Hennessy and, just a week later, run a somewhat flat race at Aintree. Now freshened up and allowed a couple of pounds from the handicapper by way of reprieve, Katenko has plenty in his favour today, the first time we've been able to say that since he ran away with a Grade 3 on Festival Trials Day last year. We at Timeform believe Katenko can become a live outsider for the Gold Cup; for that to happen he'll have to go close in even this highly-competitive Peter Marsh.

Finally, we switch to Ascot for the day's feature race, the Clarence House Chase at 15:35. The rationale is much the same as that given by our own Keith Melrose earlier in the week, so for a comprehensive assessment you can read his article. To put it briefly, Sire de Grugy's price of 2.3411/8 reflects a difference in consistency more than ability between him and his rivals, therefore taking a chance on one of them is the more enticing approach. That's especially the case with Somersby, who took this race in 2012 from subsequent Champion Chase winner Finian's Rainbow and has been placed in both renewals either side (last year's being run at Cheltenham, admittedly).  Back to something like his best this year, Somersby looks sure to push Sire de Grugy all the way again and is well priced to overcome him this time.

Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Benvolio in the 13:30 Haydock
Back Katenko win & place in the 15:15 Haydock
Back Somersby in the 15:35 Ascot

GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.