Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday November 11

The first contest under consideration today is Carlisle's graduation chase (14:25) over an extended three miles in which Buddy Bolero should be given another chance after falling at Ascot on his seasonal return. His creditable fourth in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March is useful form and as an unexposed second season chaser he is sure to improve. His jumping is usually sound, and Carlisle's fences are the easiest in the country by a clear margin so that should not be a problem. There are dangers however in what looks a decent contest for a weekday card. Imperial Vic is the chief threat and looks an unexposed type, but Pipe and Scudamore can get the best out of Buddy Bolero and make a winning start to the week. 

We head straight to Southwell next where the handicap hurdle over two-and-a-half miles (14:40) can go the way of Motou after returning from a long absence. He has filled the places on three of his last starts, coming runner-up the last twice and makes plenty of appeal if he can return to something like his best form today, and his last start at Fontwell, although some months ago now, showed signs of encouragement. He was second by six lengths to Patsy Cline and they themselves were 14 lengths clear of the chasing pack. He should give a good account of himself at the very least and gets a narrow vote over the returning Lord Landen and Stadium of Light, who didn't achieve much when winning at Stratford from a reluctant rival, and is opposable now. 

We head back to Carlisle for our last bet, in the handicap chase over two-and-a-half miles (15:30) where Riguez Dancer looks too well treated by the handicapper to ignore; his stable is starting to fine on all cylinders and he is worth taking a chance on today given that there are blinkers fitted and it would be no great surprise to see them trigger a resurgence. Course-specialist Oil Burner goes well fresh and merits respect, alongside recent C&D winner Tutchec, but Riguez Dancer can put his somewhat laboured return at Wetherby last month behind him. That was his first start for the usually dominant McCain operation and now they are finding their feet and may have got the measure of their new recruit a bit more, a much-improved performance can be expected. 

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Buddy Bolero @ 3.185/40 in the 14:25 at Carlisle
Back Motou @ 3.814/5 in the 14:40 at Southwell
Back Riguez Dancer @ 7.06/1 in the 15:30 at Carlisle

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