Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday March 17

We think there's a case of the wrong favourite in the second race (14:35). It's not that we can't see the case for Carpincho, who is well treated on old form and has offered some signs of revival of late, we just think Proud Times' claims are stronger. He's only just clicked over fences, though he's wasted little time in showing himself as good in this sphere as he ever was over hurdles. His win at Catterick in January has belatedly been advertised by the unexposed sort he pulled clear with and flat, left-handed tracks like Southwell have tended to bring out the best in Proud Times. We're having to forgive a subdued effort over hurdles at Fontwell last time, though in the context of this season that can be taken as the exception rather than the rule.

It's very much the right favourite in the 16:10. In fact, you could easily argue for Area Access being shorter. A point winner in Ireland, he left his novice form well behind when scoring from a BHA mark of 79 on his handicap debut at Taunton a week ago. That race appeals as being a stronger one than this (a couple of lurking handicap debutants notwithstanding), so a 7-lb penalty should hold Area Access back while, if anything, the longer trip and fixed-brush obstacles at Southwell should help given his point form.

Good of Luck (16:40) took a little longer than Area Access to hit stride in handicaps, though now he's started there's no reason to think he'll stop having progressed steadily even before recording a first success at Warwick last time. Crucially, that success came in a conditional jockeys' race under today's rider Gavin Sheehan. Good of Luck therefore gets to run off the same mark again and with him not having been in the Greatrex yard long it's possible he could yet improve again.

Timeform UK SmartPlays
All at Southwell

Back Proud Times @ 4.94/1 in the 14:35
Back Area Access @ 3.02/1 in the 16:10
Back Good of Luck @ 2.789/5 in the 16:40