Timeform UK SmartPlays: Friday October 10

A blow for Eoin Doyle yesterday (Ni Sin E Mo Ainm won at Exeter on his debut for Neil Mulholland) would flare up into a black eye should Mazuri Cowboy (15:45 Carlisle) make his second run for Brian Ellison a successful one. We happen to think he will. His debut for Ellison- a third-placed finish in the Summer Plate- was certainly encouraging. It's one of the few summer races that can stand side-by-side with autumn form, so even though Mazuri Cowboy has been raised 4 lb we can still treat him as well handicapped. That's before even considering his hurdles form for Doyle, which was in the useful bracket on Timeform's scale. The trip provides an unknown, though Mazuri Cowboy does appeal as more of a stayer these days and we can regard him as more likely than not to get home.

The 15:55 at Newton Abbot is rightly being lauded as a harbinger of the jumps season proper: all five of the runners featured at the latest Cheltenham Festival. There are two caveats: firstly, this early-season intermediate chase is unlikely to be any more than a rehearsal for any of them; and it could be decided by weight rather than class. Colour Squadron gets a number of weight concessions as he's still a maiden over fences. That's no real black mark against him though, as the only four starts that count for him have all been in top Cheltenham handicaps and he's finished fifth, second, third and second in those. He'll no doubt return to those contests after today but having a big early-season target, combined with his maiden status gives a little more incentive for him to make this start count. Everything's in place for him to do so.

We return north for our final bet in Carlisle's 16:50. It wouldn't be a huge surprise were Final Assault, Robin's Command or Classic Move to win. The last-named's inexperience over fences and cramped odds put us off him as a bet, though, while a comparison between the other two from their recent meeting at Perth leads us to put a bigger gap between them than the markets allows for. It all adds up to a bet on Final Assault. He rarely went beyond two miles as a hurdler but will surely be suited by longer trips. We can be positive about this switch to Carlisle, then, the course being much more his realm than Perth where Robin's Command took his measure. Final Assault also has more to gain in terms of experience, not having had time to go on the same upward curve as Robin's Command has over fences.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Mazuri Cowboy @ 3.814/5 in the 15:45 Carlisle
Back Colour Squadron @ 3.052/1 in the 15:55 Newton Abbot
Back Final Assault @ 3.412/5 in the 16:50