Timeform UK SmartPlays: Friday August 10

In the six-furlong nursery at Haydock, scheduled for 18:55, we have a potential handicap blot that may come with some risks attached, but those are more than allowed for at current odds. Until yesterday, you might have had doubts over the value of Tussie Mussie's win in a Southwell nursery last time, herself and the seemingly much-improved Relight My Fire pulling a long way clear of the rest. The runner-up did belatedly confirm that improvement (again on fibresand) when finishing second in another maiden on Thursday, so an initial BHA mark of 65 can be said to be generous to Tussie Mussie. The doubt comes from the fact that she's yet to show anything like that level on turf, but when you consider that her brother Lovelace was best on turf and half-sister Avonrose is equally proficient on turf as on fibresand, that can be taken as likely.

There's a good-quality fillies' handicap at Haydock taking place at 20:00, with unexposed and in-form sorts making up plenty of the 10-strong field. Our selection, Burke's Rock, falls into the former category, with just five career starts to her name thus far. She's recorded two wins in that time, in a Lingfield maiden and a Newmarket handicap, while her most recent effort at Sandown was her most promising yet. Burke's Rock probably had little chance against well-backed favourite Jacob Cats (who has since finished fourth at Glorious Goodwood) that day, especially considering she'd been off seven weeks, but she travelled potently in any case, leading until well inside the final furlong. Now presumably fully tuned-up, Burke's Rock is ready to go one better.

Finally, in the last race at Newmarket this evening, Picabo (20:20) is expected to follow up after a three and a quarter length victory from Soap Wars at Yarmouth last time. Although she is up 8 lb for her win, Henry Candy's filly has been improving since the application of a hood on her last two outings, and is therefore open to continue this good run of form. Both the trip and ground are repeated tonight, which should contribute to a winning run for Picabo.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Tussie Mussie @ 4.77/2 in the 18:55 at Haydock
Back Burke's Rock @ 3.39/4 in the 20:00 at Haydock
Back Picabo @ 5.24/1 in the 20:20 at Newmarket