Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday September 1

Every Timeform p is strictly equal- it has to be, by definition- though there is an unofficial understanding that some carry a little more weight than others. That understanding seems to have been taken in the six-furlong nursery (15:40) at Leicester and it's true that War Alert probably has a little more scope for improvement than fellow p-bearer Park Glen, though whether the first-named should be favourite for today's race is questionable.

Park Glen has a rolling start over War Alert when it comes to this race. She's the more experienced, having raced three times up to now. She's the one who's proved beyond question her standing in nurseries from a BHA mark in the 70s. She's also guaranteed race-fit, something that doesn't necessarily apply to War Alert seven weeks on from her maiden win. Park Glen carries a penalty for Thursday's success at Ffos Las, where she would surely have won anyway with an extra 6 lb, while she is likely to see the return to six furlongs in his favour. With fewer unknowns allied to a bigger price, Park Glen is the bet.

The power of the p is more simply demonstrated in the seven-furlong handicap (17:10) later on the Leicester card. Good Luck Charm is well handicapped and can count himself unlucky last time at the very least, though he still lags behind Elizona in the betting and rightly so. Elizona comes here after a maiden win on her third start, an easy one too notwithstanding the fact she was 20/1-on. It's her previous form, specifically her second to Laftah at Salisbury, that marks her out as a handicap snip, even off 80. Elizona shaped better than Lafath that day, the winner's easy lead helping to explain how he came clear of the rest but Elizona not having that mitigation even though she closed to within a length. Laftah has also won since off 79, so if Elizona can confirm the impression from Salisbury she can virtually be said to be on a winning mark.

We switch to Brighton for our final bet in their closer at 18:00. Decent Fella comes from the Good Luck Charm school and has nothing of Elizona's calibre to deal with. It's nearly three years since he won from a mark higher than 65, though when he did he was rated 93 by the BHA and 104 by Timeform. It's fair to say he's no longer capable of that sort of form, though it does upgrade our forecast for him on the back of a recent surge in form, which has included a win at Yarmouth and a couple of unlucky thirds on each of his last two starts. Decent Fella has experienced success at Brighton before, being a wide-margin C&D winner last summer, and ought to find hard luck more difficult to come by in a much smaller field today.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Park Glen @ 3.7511/4 in the 15:40 Leicester
Back Elizona @ 4.03/1 in the 17:10 Leicester
Back Decent Fella @ 3.39/4 in the 18:00 Brighton