Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey plays two in Coral Trophy at Kempton

Kempton
Kate Tracey likes the price about Phoenix Way at Kempton

"He has a 6lb rise to overcome however, he ran to an RPR of 152 last time out. This mark should therefore, still be feasible for him to overcome and it looks an optimal bit of placing to take in this contest on his next start."

Kate Tracey likes a couple at big prices in the Eider Handicap Chase and has each-way angles into both the Coral Trophy at Kempton and the Winter Derby at Lingfield...

Two betting angles for the Winter Derby

This year's Group 3 Winter Derby Stakes at Lingfield at 14:05 has many different angles. With eight declared runners there are plenty of differing profiles in which to assess.

There are progressive types, talented horses returning from lay-offs, a former winner bidding to defend his crown all set to line-up. Lord North heads the official ratings and it looks interesting that John and Thady Gosden have sighted this race for their horse's return.

Of course, it's very difficult to get away from Lord North for a win only bet firstly. He is the best horse in this race, his official rating of 123 showcasing that in itself. He is sighting the Winter Derby for his return instead of travelling to Saudi Arabia for this weekend's Neom Cup. His return on the back of an 11-month absence instead comes at Lingfield where he should prove his class despite the lay-off.

The Dubawi gelding is a six-year-old now but looks set for another strong campaign. He was an impressive winner of the Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes in 2020 at Royal Ascot before three further Group 1 starts that season where he ran with credit on two occasions.

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Lord North was last seen winning the Group 1 Dubai Turf on World Cup night at Meydan in March 2021. He was an impressive winner of that contest on the back of a four-month break. Of course, he has a longer absence to defy here but, all being well, he should win this Group 3 contest.

Lord North is a short-priced favourite but I still think he's a fair price at 1.910/11 to be backing him to win. However, there is another runner I like in this race at a big price of 26.025/1 to be chancing each-way as well. That horse is King Of The South.

William Knight's representative has run all bar one of his 14 career starts on the all-weather where he's shown significant progression these past two winters.

He went into the Winter Derby Trial last time out bidding for a four-timer. He came off second best behind the reopposing Fancy Man however, he didn't get an ideal run. He stayed on well in the finish to bag second but was never able to get on terms with the winner.

That was yet another likeable performance from King Of The South and with more luck, he looks sure to run into a place again at a big price.

Each-way plays in the Eider

The sole ITV televised race from Newcastle is the Eider Handicap Chase over 4m1f at 15:15. The race doesn't look as though it's going to be the slog we usually associate with the Eider for all it will still require a true stamina laden performance.

The going at Newcastle is currently good to soft with bright and breezy conditions forecast between now and Saturday. Conditions, therefore, shouldn't be any worse than good to soft.

Sorting through recent trends of the Eider reveal a few factors. Nine-year-olds have won the last four renewals of the race and five of the last six runnings. In terms of an ideal handicap mark, it's difficult to pinpoint an exact sweet spot for this race. However, a mark in the mid-130s to 140 is preferable.

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Hold up performers surprisingly have a good record where it's proven difficult to set a strong pace and maintain it. The conditioning of four runs in a season is optimal and ideally, a horse either won or placed last time out. A break of around one month since a latest outing should also be considered.

These trends have landed me on two runners to side with at each way prices. The first selection is Court Master who ticks most boxes. There is the fear that he may be ridden too far forwards in this race, of course.
Court Master comes here in good form after winning last time out. That success came at Newcastle over 2m7f where he jumped very well and made all before seeing out the trip strongly.

That was only a three-runner race and Court Master did what was expected as the even money favourite. Hopefully, that'll now tee this nine-year-old up well for this step back up in trip.

Court Master is also best on a sounder surface, so the forecast is certainly in his favour and he looks a fair price at 11.010/1.

The second each-way play in this race is Cash To Ash at 17.016/1 who is also a nine-year-old but running off a 5lb lower mark than Court Master on 125. He has also run four times this season which is another ideal angle into this contest.

The doubt about Cash To Ash's chances once again, is the fact that he might be ridden too prominently. However, he too, has a solid profile for this race.

He has run well to finish second on each of his four starts this season which has seen him climb the handicap in the process, being nudged up 7lb. He certainly has stamina as shown when second on his penultimate start in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day.

He should give his running as long as connections decide not to make masses of him and ground won't be a worry as he is very versatile.

Hold up performers can come to the fore in Coral Trophy

The Grade 3 Coral Trophy Handicap Chase over 3m at 15:37 is as competitive a contest as ever. It's an incredibly trappy race to solve this year and I initially compiled a long shortlist of four. However, I eventually narrowed down my selections to two. The first horse being Five Star Getaway who is currently advertised at 5.59/2 second favourite behind Annsam.

I hope Five Star Getaway is once again, ridden with restraint as he was last time out at Sandown when third. My concern is that he made most of the running on his penultimate start when winning over this course and distance. It therefore, would make sense if connections decided to readopt those tactics back at Kempton. However, this race has a solid record with horses who are either ridden in mid-division or are held up.

That's because there tends to be plenty of pace in this contest which very often leads to a pace collapse. Hold up tactics are counterproductive to Kempton's usual pace bias however, this race is a definitely exception to that rule.
Five Star Getaway remains on the same mark as last time out of 134 which sees him feasibly treated. Clearly he runs this course and distance very well and he has a highly likeable profile for the contest.

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The other consideration for this race is Phoenix Way who is a nine-year-old which is the first positive for this race. He also has an ideal rating for the race on 146 and he has three starts this season, which is another plus. I am far more confident that he will be ridden with restraint and the race should therefore, fall apart perfectly for him.

We saw that to winning effect last time out at Ascot where Phoenix Way was given a hugely cool and confident ride by the talented Kevin Brogan. Brogan rides Phoenix Way again here and is likely to replicate similar tactics by cruising into contention.

He has a 6lb rise to overcome however, he ran to an RPR of 152 last time out. This mark should therefore, still be feasible for him to overcome and it looks an optimal bit of placing to take in this contest on his next start.

At a very fair price of 11.010/1 I'll chance Phoenix Way each-way to outrun his price and post another good run.

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Kate's P/L

Staked: 96pts
Returns: 139.6pts
Overall: +43.6

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.