Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey likes an outsider in London National

Chance three in hugely competitive Becher

This race heavily lends itself to trends and I've once again, run through the variables and pitched them against the 2022 line-up.

Firstly, eight or nine-year-olds are favoured and the optimal winning rating is 140. This mark has been seen to success in the past two renewals and even prior to that, the winning mark was 141 in 2019. Expanding the rating bandwidth would also factor in horses rated 137-141.

Nowadays, this contest has gone to horses ridden prominently but it hasn't been a huge bias in recent years. Coming into this contest on the back of one run is ideal and it should have been an in-frame effort in a handicap chase on that latest outing. A three-to-six-week turnaround is also preferred.

These factors landed me on three runners and given the luck needed in this race, I am willing to play all three from a betting perspective.

The first runner who is an unoriginal selection and will, no doubt, be high on many people's list is Gesskille. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero's representative is only a six-year-old, the youngest a horse can be to run in the Becher but he has plenty of good experience to his name.

He was previously based in France where he developed a very consistent profile and took in plenty of cross-country races in that time. It made sense therefore, why he was picked up by these connections to aim at races over the National fences at Aintree.

Originally, the aim had been to run Gesskille in the Foxhunters at Aintree but success in a Listed Chase at Auteuil in June ruled that possibility out.

Connections having their hand forced may well prove to be a positive though, given how well Gesskille ran over the national fences on his reappearance last time out when second in the Grand Sefton.

The gelding just failed to get up on the line and went down by a nose in second to Al Dancer who gained first run. He should appreciate this step up and trip and has more to offer in this sphere despite the 4lb rise.

There are two more runners at bigger prices who I'm just as interested in however. The first of those is Dr Kananga who is likely to give a bold jumping display on the front-end.

Ben Clarke is a trainer I have a lot of time for given his success with his small string with a real emphasis on staying chasers. Of course, this yard will be hoping to make more positive headlines than in recent weeks when their The Galloping Bear was disqualified from his Grand National trial win due to a testing positive for a banned substance.

Dr Kananga developed into a very consistent and progressive chaser last season in which he was successful three times.

He switched tack for his reappearance last time out when second in a Bangor Novices' Hurdle and ran well to finish second. That run should tee him up nicely for a return to larger obstacles and he's likely to take to these fences, given his bold jumping style.

The final runner I want to keep on side for this race is Cloth Cap who is too big a price for me to ignore at 26.025/1. Admittedly, he is a horse many have chanced time and time again in a hope of him coming good but his price is just too tempting for me with most variables in his favour.

It was only two years ago that this now 10-year-old, won the Ladbrokes Trophy (now Coral Gold Cup) in such impressive style. He carried all before him on his next start in a listed chase at Kelso and it looked like he'd have a very strong chance in the Grand National.

Sent off as favourite, he weakened quickly after flipping his pallet. He's not looked the same horse since then and it's been debateable whether he's still in love with the game or not.

He reportedly bled in this year's Grand National when pulling up once more and again, didn't see his race out well on his reappearance last time out. That was when finishing fifth in a Veterans' Handicap Chase at this track but on the Mildmay Course.

Of course, that all makes him a hugely risky proposition but he's worth one last chance, back over these fences now that he's worked his way down to a very feasible mark.

He may well not fire at all again, but with so many trends in his favour, I'm siding with him once more.

Dubai can excel in Liverpool

The trends suggest no age bias but the rating bandwidths to consider are 124-134. Ideally, it's worth siding with a horse rated 133 or 134 which goes to suggest that this is an above average renewal of this race.

It's more favourable to side with a horse ridden in mid-division nowadays who comes into this contest on the back of one run. Ideally, a horse won or placed in a handicap chase last time out and that run came one and a half to five weeks ago.

There were three initial horses to consider, those being Knight In Dubai, Cooper's Cross and the dual winner of this race going for a hattrick now, Clan Legend.

Really homing in on the trends have landed me on Knight In Dubai as a sole selection.

Dan Skelton's runner is very lightly raced for a nine-year-old but looks to have plenty more to offer over fences.

He initially went chasing in 2018 when falling which aborted the plan until the following season where he was able to win his first two chase starts back. He was subsequently set some lofty targets before missing 20 months off the track.

He only had three starts last season which were nothing to write home about but posted a fair display on his reappearance last time out.

He finished second at Bangor on the back of another 10-month absence which he can now build on off this 1lb higher mark.

Claimer can once again win London National

There is no notable age bias for this race but it does tend to favour older horses of a veteran age. There are two rating bandwidths to consider, those rated 130-135 or 144-145 and having a claimer enlisted is a real plus.

Horses who are ridden prominently are favoured as are horses who come into this race on the back of two starts this season. Ideally, a horse ran well in a 'national' last time out with the Southern National being the race to focus on. A three-week turnaround time from their latest start is optimal.

These trends have landed me on Almazhar Garde who needs to bounce back from falling in the aforementioned, Southern National last time out.

Charlie Longsdon's runner was well fancied for that Fontwell handicap and sent off at 13/2 where he was going well until tipping up at the 10th fence.

It's very easily to dismiss Fontwell form but that was a likeable contest and for all we didn't get to see what Almazhar Garde was going to do in it, he was still bang there.

He's able to run off the same mark of 135 yet he's been readily dismissed in the market on the back of that fall.

He is well weighted and ticks the box of having a useful claimer on his back as well which is something that has been seen to winning effect in four of the past five renewals of this race.

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