Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey is Alert to the chances of an outsider at Ascot

• Two bets in the Sprint including a 50/1 outsider
• Believes a 14/1 shot has lots to offer in Fillies & Mares
• Fancies a previous QEII winner to triumph again

Chance two at either end of the market in Champions Sprint

It may be a Group 1 but the Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes over 6f at 14:00 has the look of a heritage handicap in terms of the betting. This contest is wide-open with any number of chances that can be given to the runners.

I have two bets for this race starting with last year's victor, Creative Force. Charlie Appleby's four-year-old should have all conditions in his favour once more except perhaps, being drawn in stall 13 of 18. The reason this may be a negative is the fact that low draws have been seen to best effect in this race.

Last year, the first five home were drawn: 5, 2, 4, 20, 9. In the last six years, only one horse has won from a double figure draw. That was Sands Of Mali who was drawn in stall 10 of 14 in 2018 but there has been a definite bias towards those drawn low.

The reason for this bias is at this time of year, the sun rises in such a way that the shadow of the Ascot grandstand covers the standside of the track for longer than the far side. Therefore, if the sun is shining, then the far side dries out quicker than the nearside. It makes sense then, that the low drawn horses on the straight track should be favoured.

Creative Force will have options however, and it looks notable that William Buick has elected to ride him instead of Naval Crown who will instead be partnered by James Doyle.

The seeming, first-string has a similar profile to that of last season coming into this race by the fact he ran below his peak on his latest outing. The concern is that that run was on 9th July whereas last season he only had the month break coming into this contest.

Despite running below his brilliant best on that latest outing, he still ran a solid race to finish fourth on unsuitably quick ground in the Group 1 July Cup behind Alcohol Free.

It's not clear as to why he's had the time off since then but with softer conditions back in his favour, over his favourite track and trip, he is a solid play at 4.7515/4.

The second bet I have in this contest is at a much bigger price of 51.050/1 and that horse is Double Or Bubble.

The original reason for giving this mare a second look was her draw in stall 1 for the aforementioned reasons on the low draw bias. Any horse drawn lower than 10 should be given at least further analysis.

The ground admittedly, is likely to be on the softer side than Double Or Bubble would ideally want but she runs this track very well.

I think she's very much a six-furlong horse rather than the seven she's contested on her latest couple of outings. Despite that, she was still successful over the longer trip on her penultimate start at Goodwood in the Group 3 Supreme Stakes.

She was back up in grade last time out in the Group 2 Park Stakes at Doncaster where she was settled in rear and never made any impression on the far side. It was a very tame run where she didn't appear to be in love with the soft ground.

She ran a solid race in the Group 1 July Cup where she finished just a head behind Creative Force in fifth. That was on good to firm ground which she relished.

She is a former winner at Ascot over 7f but was far from disgraced in Group company on her two further outings at the track. She may be capable of outrunning her big price if the ground continues to dry out.

Stay Alert to likely outsider in Fillies and Mares

The following race is yet another fascinating Group 1 in the form of the Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes over 1m4f at 14:40. .

This race is certainly centred around Emily Upjohn who bids to bounce back from a lesser performance last time out when sixth and last in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. There were reasons as to why that race went awry though as it was certainly plan b for the filly after she was forced to miss the Irish Oaks due to travel issues.

John and Thady Gosden's runner may well be able to bounce back here but I'm still willing to look away from her at the head of the market.

Instead, I like the chances and the price about Stay Alert at 15.014/1. In this race, it certainly pays to side with a three-year-old, given the weight they receive from their elders. That is going to make life much harder for Eshaada to win this race for a second year running.

Stay Alert is therefore, the optimal age and she is also bang there on the figures. She has a very unexposed profile with just six career starts to her name and I don't think we've seen the peak of her ability yet.

Hughie Morrison's filly has been steadily progressing through the ranks. The step up to Group 2 company on her penultimate start didn't work out at Haydock in the Lancashire Oaks where she was held up in rear. That was a hideously messy race with Free Wind and Sea La Rosa the 1-2 and Eshaada back in third. It was a race that worked out in the favour of those ridden prominently.

However, Stay Alert was dropped back 1f in trip last time out and she returned to winning ways in Group 3 company at Newbury. That contest was the Arc Trial where she did very well to win that after getting no room repeatedly. She was far more value for the win than the neck winning margin would suggest.

This is going to require a big step forward from her to take this prize but, in what has been a wide-open division this season, she looks capable of doing exactly that.

Previous winner can gain another QEII success

The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1m at 15:20 is a far more open affair than the betting would have it, in my opinion. Of course, Inspiral is the horse to beat but I don't think this is a vintage renewal of the QE2 and as a result, we have a very strong favourite.

I think John and Thady Gosden's filly is too short a price and is worth taking on. Therefore, I prefer the price about The Revenant at 7.06/1 who bids to win this race again.

He was successful in this contest in 2020 which was a huge feat on his second start of that campaign and with just a 14-day turnaround from his reappearance following a year-long absence. The Revenant relished the soft ground on that occasion and made the most of Palace Pier running below himself.

He had a very 'French' campaign last year where he was turned out early with two fair but lesser efforts in the spring. He was eased off for the summer but returned for his autumn targets. He again, ran a screamer in this race in 2021 when bidding to defend his title, proving the year prior was no fluke.

He finished fourth in a much deeper renewal of the QE2 behind Baaeed, Palace Pier and Lady Bowthorpe. He was only beaten 2 1/2l behind a couple of the world's best racehorses which was a huge result.

This season has gone even better than the last as he was able to win his pair of spring races prior to another mid-season break. His reappearance third in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin was a solid first effort back as we know French trainers don't tend to have their horses fully tuned for a return.

He was able to build on that run to finish second in the Group 1 Prix Daniel Wildenstein where he conceded first run to the favourite and eventual winner, Erevann. The Revenant challenged widest of all, down the centre of the track, where he was unable to see Erevann who was hard against the inside rail. The Revenant was closing all the way to the line but ran out of time to push the winner who made that race winning manoeuvre.

Soft ground is hugely in The Revenant's favour and with his solid track record and this race looking the big target, he must be respected.