Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 28/1 Bluesky to light up Musselburgh

Musselburgh
Our racing expert has two selections on Friday

Our resident tipster has analysed Friday's racing and has two selections at Musselburgh and Newbury...

  • Good runs at Perth and Newcastle

  • Market overreaction to one poor run

  • Bella Bluesky is overpriced at Musselburgh


Can bounce back from poor run

Musselburgh 13:50: Bella Bluesky 0.5pt e/w 28/1

Bella Bluesky was pulled up on her latest start 10 days ago but that was at the equine rollercoaster of Sedgefield and it may be that she simply didn't handle the track rather than the ground being the sole reason for that.

Prior to that, she had run well twice at Perth and Newcastle. She was held up and didn't jump too well at Perth. She was pushed along in last on the run to 3 out but responded and then made a big move on the outside early in the home straight to be only just behind the leaders at 2 out.

She couldn't go with Petite Rhapsody on the run to the last but kept on well enough to finish third. The winner in now rated 13lb higher while the runner up has won three of her next four starts and the fourth won next time.

Bella Bluesky was off the track for 284 days before making her return at Newcastle. She didn't quite have the pace to handle the drop back in trip but kept battling away up the home straight to finish third behind Maimie's Magic. She faces both that rival and Ravenscar on 5lb better terms today.

I think the return to a flat track will suit Bella Bluesky and that she's returning to action just ten days after a disappointing run suggests there was no physical issue to blame for the run at Sedgefield.

Conditions were also very testing at Sedgefield so while the ground is on the soft side today, it shouldn't be as testing as it was last time which is helpful for her chance.

It might be that she's just inconsistent and will put in another poor run but I think the market has overreacted to one poor run where there were excuses and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

Back Bella Bluesky in the 13:50 at Musselburgh 0.5pt e/w

28/1


Wind op to spark a revival

Newbury 15:40: Milanford 0.5pt e/w 18/1

Lieutenant Rocco bounced back to form on his first run after a wind op and, for the same connections, I'm hoping that Milanford can do likewise this afternoon.

He showed some promise on his first run after nearly a year off at Cheltenham when staying in touch with the leading group until the final bend and his poor run at Exeter next time can be excused as the lack of fences in the back straight wouldn't have suited him.

Milanford ran respectably in the fog at Wincanton next time before shaping far better than the result suggests at Taunton. Having raced just in behind the leaders, he jumped into a share of the lead at 5 out and still appeared to be travelling well but once pushed along after a mistake at 4 out, he quickly dropped away.

The trip was clearly on the sharp side at Hereford last time and it looks a generous decision by the handicapper to drop him 5lb considering that. That means he's now racing off a 13lb lower mark than when finishing third at Wincanton three starts ago.

The way that he's been travelling in races before finding little late on suggests there may have been a wind problem so he could finish the race off stronger and bounce back to form today now that he's had a wind op.

There is always the chance that the wind op has no impact and there has been a bit of early market support for Milanford but I think he's still a little overpriced and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.

Back Milanford in the 15:40 at Newbury 0.5pt e/w

18/1

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 65.50pts

Returned: 57.63pts

P/L: -7.87pts

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