Four of the six Group and Listed races at Longchamp on Sunday have attracted horses from the UK. Patrick Weaver previews them and reckons the big-race favourite is vulnerable...
"Richard Hannon's Frankel filly looks a good bet to beat Baaeed which is untested at this level. At 4/1 on the Sportsbook, she is a value each-way bet."
After a busy Saturday at home, there is a quality card at Longchamp to watch on SkyRacing this Sunday.
It is another weekend of back-to-back Group Ones - Haydock's Betfair Sprint Cup being followed within 24 hours by the Prix du Moulin at 14:48.
The short-priced favourite Baaeed has won all his four starts; starting with a Leicester maiden the Monday after the Derby. He then won a novices' event at Newmarket, went back to his local track for a Listed and went down to Goodwood where he picked off a Group 3.
It is a progressive path for a late-developing three-year-old, one that has in no way been demanding. William Haggas and Shadwell Estates have not rushed him and he now takes on quality older horses for the first time as well as two top fillies of his own age, the German 1,000 Guineas winner Novemba and the Falmouth winner Snow Lantern.
I will always oppose a promising type with one that has won a Group 1, so I've three to pick from - Snow Lantern, Order Of Australia and Victor Ludorum.
It's over a year since Victor Ludorum won the French 2,000 Guineas and he hasn't exactly progressed since. He has not made the first four in his last three Group 1s.
Order Of Australia which won the Breeders' Cup Mile last autumn at 40/1 has the better form of the two this year but was a length behind Snow Lantern in the Qatar Sussex Stakes.
Given Snow Lantern has twice finished ahead of subsequent Group 1 winner Mother Earth this summer. Richard Hannon's Frankel filly looks a good bet to beat Baaeed which is untested at this level. At 4/1 on the Sportsbook, she is a value each-way bet.
Moovies can make the best of his way home
The Group 3 that opens the card - the Prix La Rochette at 12:23 - is full of promising two-year-olds.
Six of the seven won lesser races last time out. The one that finished third, Wizard Of Eye, did so in a Group 3. John Egan keeps the mount on Stan Moore's stable star. William Buick is on Charlie Appleby's Listed winner New Science and Ryan Moore takes over from Danny Muscott on the Sandown winner El Bodegon.
The French four are much of a muchness and there is probably value to be had via Making Moovies. This well-bred son of Darasim has won his two races over seven on heavy at La Teste impressively. His odds rather underestimate his achievements on the track because his trainer Didier Guillemin has fewer Paris runners than the likes of Andre Fabre, Jean-Claude Rouget and Graffard Racing. This one is no slouch though and could well leave Longchamp with his unbeaten record intact.
Crisfords should be in the money with Maamora
Were Simon and Ed Crisford to win the Listed Prix de la Cochere at 12:58 with Maamora there will be a few trainers kicking themselves. A Group 3 winner at Sandown last year, she went back for the same race last month, and could only finish fifth behind Saffron Beach, Waliyak, Ville de Grace and Potapova - all of whom could have run this weekend and possibly confirmed the form.
Maamora is the only British runner but should she be 9/4 favourite on her current form? Sky Angel and Pamouschana have similar official ratings, yet are almost twice Maamora's odds. The former was second to Novemba in the German 1,000 Guineas. Pamouschana was third to the Brit pair, Cloudy Dawn and Just Beautiful, in the Group 3 Prix de Lieurey at Deauville.
Although Maamora should be in the money, I'd sooner back Sky Angel or Pamouschana each-way.
Avenue looks Godolphin's best chance of a winner
There are two Newmarket runners in the Prix du Prince d'Orange at 13:33. The market has Godolphin's Highland Avenue at 9/2 and John Leeper at 7/1 which is how I would price them.
Highland Avenue was a close fourth in a Group 2 at Deauville last time and drops in class. John Leeper, in contrast, ran well below market expectations when third in a Listed at Sandown for which he was 5/4 favourite. He has not progressed since winning the Lingfield Derby trial and doesn't appeal despite Ryan Moore being on top.
The best of the French is surely Saiydabad which finished fourth in the French Derby over 10 furlongs before disappointing on soft ground in the 12-furlong Grand Prix de Paris. That run can readily be forgiven because of the ground, and he is the one they have to beat back over his best trip.
Lord Charming was fourth in the German Derby over 12 furlongs and would have been my tip were this race over that distance. He came within a nose of winning a Listed race over this course and distance in June, so wouldn't need to improve to be placed.
A 12/1 shot, Lord Charming should give you a run for your money, but he needs to improve to finish ahead of Saiydabad and Highland Avenue.
Get a Free £10 Bet – Every Day!
We’re doubling our Daily Rewards! From Thursday September 2 until Wednesday September 8, stake £20 on multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £10 to use on multiples or Bet Builders. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day after they are placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.