York Ebor Festival Tips: Back Bastion to make it third time lucky

Taghrooda is trading at 1.251/4 on Betfair to win the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday afternoon and that fills me with absolute dread - and not because I am tempted to unload with all available betting barrels on the Qipco King George winner at 4s on.

In fact, in true Sir Stephen Redgrave style, you can load up the aforementioned barrels with your best dumdums - the bullets, not the tasty doughnuts from Greggs - and shoot me if you ever see me playing at those odds.

No, my worry is the fact that I am probably a 1.01 poke to hear or read on Thursday afternoon that you "couldn't have got a 25% return on your money in two minutes in a bank or building society, could you?" if she dances home, as expected.

And that is guaranteed to get the expletives rolling here.

It has to be one of the most nonsensical, ignorant, oft trotted-out lines in horse racing when a heavy odds-on shot comes to town and obliges. And that is saying something.

Not least because you have zero chance of losing your money if a bank folds these days - the nice Government protects your money - and I bet the cliche merchants weren't trotting out that line after 4-11 Sariska got turned over by Dar Re Mi in this race five years ago and the two-minute money-buyers emptied their bank accounts.

So if Taghrooda duly wins - and I can only see unlucky Irish Oaks runner-up Tapestry as any sort of credible danger to her - name and shame anyone you hear uttering those sinful words.

Back to more serious matters, the shape of this race is all wrong for a bet though - a 1-4 chance in a seven-runner race won't get anyone's pulse or purse active - but the 1m handicap at 15:05 offers up a punting opportunity in the shape of our old friend Fort Bastion.

Back him at odds of 15.014/1 or better - and I hope that he is given a slightly more urgent ride than my selection Mass Rally was in the opener today. That didn't look great.

We have been with him at big prices on his last two starts, and there is plenty of reason to believe it could be third time lucky for us here.

He found 7f an inadequate test when a good eighth at Ascot and he was one of a number of hard luck stories over a mile at Goodwood last time, where he must have gone close to winning if the breaks had gone his way in the final furlong.

He has been raised 1lb for that, which was a bit of a kick in the teeth for connections, but he is still only 2lb higher than when just touched off over by a short head over course and distance back in May. And that was not the first time he has run well at this course, having finished second in the Acomb at this meeting back in 2011.

He must go well.

I am going to put up a left-field saver on Energizer at odds of 17.016/1 or bigger, too.

Anyone who saw this horse come from off the pace from a wide draw to finish an eye-catching sixth in the Wolferton last time could be forgiven for questioning why the horse is being stepped down 2f to 1m, rather than up to 1m4f. But I like the move.

He was trained in Germany when winning the 1m2f Group 3 Tercentary Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2012 but he had clearly shown new trainer Charlie Appleby plenty of pace in Dubai over the winter, as he ran him over 1m in Dubai, where he made the running.

He disappointed there but I like the idea of giving this keen-going sort his head again over 1m here and racing him close to the pace - he finished a decent fourth in the German 2,000 Guineas - and I hope Richard Hughes does just that. He is definitely handicapped to win races off a mark of just 100, a generous 2lb lower than at Ascot last time.

I can't see any angle in a cracking three-way go in the Lowther but I am going to give Markaz a spin against the Group horse in the opening sales race at 13:55.

Back him at odds of 13.012/1 or better.

He clearly has to improve to beat the likes of Kool Kompany and Fast Act, but I thought it was a very strong Goodwood nursery where he finished second to the well-regarded Son Of Africa in a good time.

Indeed, it was interesting to hear winning trainer Henry Candy talk up the form immediate afterwards - "He is a progressive sort of horse and I would think that was a little bit better than a nursery" - and I give Markaz a fair outside shout of upsetting the form horses here.

In the races after Channel 4 has gone off air, whacky Waila is expected to do better with the hood dispensed with in the Galtres Stakes, and I imagine that Dutch Rose has been tuned up for this, having won the race for the last two years. But no bets for me, there.

But do keep an eye and ear out for the '25%' line on your Taghrooda money. I'll give any sightings a mention tomorrow - and they won't be complimentary for the guilty parties.

Recommended Bets

Back Markaz @ 13.012/1 or better - 13:55 York
Back Fort Bastion @ 15.014/1 or better - 15:05 York
Back Energizer @ 17.016/1 or better - 15:05 York