Sunday Racing Tips: Jellicle backers to have a Ball on 1,000 Guineas day

At the time of writing, the outsider of the 13-strong 1,000 Guineas field is only trading at 36.035/1, which gives you a good indication of how open the race is this year.

So, while it is fair to say that anything can win, I am pretty sweet on the chances of Jellicle Ball at odds of 11.010/1.

I agree with the market in that it makes the first two home in last year's Rockfel, Lucida and Fadhayyil, as the most likely winners. But I do think that Jellicle Ball has the potential to improve past them.

Sectional time students, led by Timeform's Simon Rowlands and his merry stopwatch-wielding band, were purring - sorry - about the filly's finishing split when winning at Kempton last October and on the back of that maiden victory she was sent off a well-backed 11-4 chance in the Fred Darling.

That was clearly a big step up in class, so while her narrow defeat to Redstart there - with a below-par Tiggy Wiggy in third - was disappointing for her supporters, it was clearly a much-improved effort.

And the prospect of this extra furlong - she is bred to be suited by middle distances on the distaff side of her pedigree - and the experience she gathered at Newbury promises to see her progress again here.

Indeed, Ryan Moore thought her inexperience may have cost her the race at Newbury - and it is worth noting that she traded at 1.251/4 in running that day - and she is worth chancing here with that run under her belt.

I am never afraid to take a flier at a massive price, and that is exactly what I am doing with likely rag Barbican at 40.039/1 in the 13:50.

Given that he has been off the track for the best part of two years, he could quite easily blow out completely here. And he has clearly been a very difficult horse to train.

But the fact that new trainer Don Cantillon is persevering with the 7yo is seen as a positive, and there is little doubt that he has inherited a well-handicapped horse.

And, with horses with a history of problems, trainers very rarely take the chance of returning them to the track undercooked, as it can do more harm than good.

The horse has gone well when fresh anyway; indeed he was having his first start for a year when a good fourth on his most recent start at Ascot in July 2013, and he can now race off a 6lb lower market.

It is clearly a guess. But hopefully an educated one, and fully justifiable at the price. He loves fast ground and has gone well at this meeting in the past, too.

The Dahlia Stakes at 14:25 is far too tricky for a limited mind like mine to solve, so I'll pass on that race, and centre on Foxtrot Romeo in the 15:00 at odds of 17.016/1.

He has been running well in decent races on the all-weather and the handicapper has given him a chance here, as he can race off a 5lb lower on the turf.

And I suspect that this strong-traveller will be equally effective on the grass. Indeed, he is only 2lb higher than when fourth in the Silver Cup last September, and I can see him being produced late by Martin Harley to take this.

I will be two-handed in the race though, as Swiss Cross is no 33-1 poke. He ran well when fourth over 5f at Epsom last time and the return to this trip on a stiffer track - though he was down the field in this race last season - should suit him much better. He is handicapped to be competitive in these contests once again, and rates a bet at 40.039/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Barbican at 40.039/1 in the 13:50 at Newmarket
Back Foxtrot Romeo at 17.016/1 in the 15:00 at Newmarket
Back Swiss Cross at 40.039/1 in the 15:00 at Newmarket
Back Jellicle Ball at 11.010/1 in the 15:40 at Newmarket