Saturday Racing Tips: Trust Easterby to produce the Scottish National winner

Forget the Grand National - and after my main fancy Burton Port got as far as the second before blundering and unseating last week, I am trying to, believe me - the Scottish equivalent at Ayr (15:50 on Saturday) is even more of a head-scratcher.
 
And Paul Nicholls' decision to run another early Aintree casualty, Tidal Bay, further muddies the waters, with 21 of the 32 runners now racing out of the handicap, among them some horses well-supported in the ante-post market.
 
Trustan Times was one of those, hot on the heels of his excellent fourth in the Pertemps at Cheltenham, where a certain Pineau de Re finished a neck ahead of him in third and didn't do a bad job of translating that form from hurdles to fences recently.
 
He was definitely on my short-list, but the fact that he is now racing from 6lb out of the handicap did deter me initially.
 
But then I thought that I couldn't put anyone off backing him on that fact alone - horses have won this race from much further out of the weights - and I just couldn't pass him over.
 
After all, his hurdles mark is 13lb higher than his chase mark, so he is theoretically still well handicapped and it's a fair punt that Tim Easterby has laid him out for this.
 
Easterby is having a good season, with a Cheltenham Festival winner in Hawk High, and he won a valuable Saturday prize with Run Ructions Run last month, too.
 
This is the longest trip the horse has ever attempted, but his best effort over hurdles came when stepped back up to 3m last time - and when second in the Rendlesham in heavy ground last year over 3m at Haydock - and he could well improve for this marathon test. And he is unexposed over fences too, having has just five chase starts. 
 
Some may say inexperience, I say unexposed. Back him at odds of 16.015/1 or better.
 
My other fancy is Alpha Victor, who we knows stays all day, having narrowly denied us a big payday when second to Goulanes at odds of 33-1 in the Midlands Grand National last time.
 
He is 2lb out of the handicap here, but I still think that he is fairly treated, as the winner was another "Pipe special" at Uttoxeter and the selection pulled 11 lengths clear of the third, West End Rocker.
 
That came on heavy ground but his trainer has apparently always thought him more suited to better ground. 
 
The form book doesn't bear that out at all but he was a four-length winner of a handicap hurdle on good ground at Aintree two seasons ago, if the ground does dry out, and is a real grinder.
 
Like Aintree, you could list another 10 or so dangers - chief among them Godsmejudge, Roalco De Farges, and Roberto Goldback - so best to keep stakes on the low side, but Alpha Victor rates a fair saver at odds of 28.027/1.
 
Court Minstrel got me out of a hole when winning at 16-1 for us at Aintree last week but he could have his work cut out trying to follow up in a highly-competitive Scottish Champion Hurdle at 14:40.
 
It could be a case of "last off the bridle wins", as there are any number of strong travellers in the line-up. 
 
But, top weight or not, My Tent Of Yours is a very worthy short-priced favourite and I'm not in a rush to take him on, and nothing caches my eye in the 15:15 either, so off to Newbury we go.
 
There is a certain amount of guesswork in any tipping piece, but it is especially true of Classic trials, and I just can't see any edge in the Fred Darling or the Greenham.
 
Who knows how much the horses have improved over the winter, or their state of readiness in advance of the big ones at Newmarket next month, so I will just give my idea of the likeliest winner rather than recommend any bets.
 
In the fillies' trial at 14:20, I would side with Al Thakira if I had to. Apparently, she suffered an injury after failing to act on the fast ground out in the States in the Breeders' Cup.
 
If she is fit and raring to go, she looks the form horse here on her earlier impressive Rockfel win. But she wouldn't want the ground to dry out too much, given that experience at Santa Anita, and both of her victories have come with ease in the ground.
 
The Greenham looks an absolute cracker at 14:55, but quite clearly there are any numbers of colts in here of immense potential. If I was forced to back one, it would be Night Of Thunder, who looked very good in winning two races at the back-end last season and apparently has been going well at home. Then again, they probably all have.
 
Cubanita looks my idea of the winner of the 13:50, but again I could make a decent case for five others in the race, so I will pass on this race, too.
 
Dubawi Sound is very interesting on his first start for Hugo Palmer in the Spring Cup at 15:30 and I am definitely playing here.
 
Palmer is a trainer going places, and he has taken charge of a horse very well-treated on his best form. He is 10lb lower than when only beaten six lengths in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last season m- he has also ran good races after that - and I think that his previous handler David Brown may have made a mistake in keeping the horse to 6f and 7f last season.
 
A patient ride over 1m is expected to suit - he actually won over course and distance on his racecourse debut for Roger Varian - and a first-time hood is another interesting little twist, too, as he is undoubtedly tricky. As is the fact that a little bird tells me that he has been working the house down.
 
Back him at odds of 17.016/1 or better.
 
Foxtrot Romeo is another stable-switcher who can't fail to catch your eye in here (though there are others like Jacob Cats too).
 
He only beat three horses home in three starts when trained  by Johnny Murtagh in Ireland last season, and the only upside of those performances is that the handicapper has dropped him 14lb. Not exactly a Curley-esque plummet, but the assessor has played fair.
 
So now Botti inherits an exceptionally well-handicapped horse - he was only beaten a length by Power in the Irish Guineas two seasons ago, remember - and he has to be worth a few quid as a saver at odds of 15.014/1. He would pick these up and spit them out on that form, or indeed his other Group 1 and 2 efforts in 2012.

Recommended Bets
Back Dubawi Sound @ 17.016/1 or better in the 15:30 at Newbury 
Back Foxtrot Romeo @ 15.014/1 or better in the 15:30 at Newbury 
Back Trustan Times @ 17.016/1 or better in the Scottish Grand National, Ayr, 15:50
Back Alpha Victor @ 28.027/1 or better in the Scottish Grand National, Ayr, 15:50