Saturday Racing Tips: Invicta we trust at Sandown

Invicta Lake the value bet in Saturday's showpiece

If only Medinas had taken up his alternative engagement in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, which would have resulted in the weights going up another 8lb, then I would have been getting very punchy about the chances of Invicta Lake in Sandown's 15:00.

As it is, I'm still pretty strong on his chances at 21.020/1 or bigger.

Firstly, the negatives. He is 2lb out of the handicap as a result of Medinas standing his ground and there is a possibility that this race could come too soon for him after his fourth at Huntingdon last week. And he does meet a lot of younger, more progressive horses.

However, I'd have him as a more a 10-1 poke in here, and the positives far outweigh those doubts.

He may have been beaten 12½ lengths at Huntingdon last week but it was all the more creditable because he was forced to make his own running. Tom O'Brien clearly didn't want to, but as the field were stationary for a few seconds after the tape went up, he'd clearly had enough of the collective dithering and went on.

He is a much better horse coming off a strong pace - he has been held up for all of his five career wins - and those were the conditions he had when winning this race in the soft by 4½ lengths last season.

That win effectively came off only a 1lb higher mark than today (he is officially 1lb lower, but that is negated by him being out of the handicap), so he is clearly weighted to run a big race, provided the Huntingdon outing hasn't left its mark. But I can't believe that connections haven't had one eye on a repeat win in this contest for a while, and conditioned him accordingly.

And the positives don't end there. Suzy Smith had her first winner since November when Clondaw Bisto won a Plumpton bumper on Monday, and Gavin Sheehan (who will have no trouble doing the weight) has an excellent 26 per cent strike rate for the yard.

The selection is featherweight in what promises to be bottomless ground - the forecast for the next 24 hours isn't pretty - which could be another plus. In the seven previous runnings of this race, invariably run in a bog when beating the weather, no horse has carried more than 10st 12lb to victory.

Have a little bet on a Little Boy

Stablemate Little Boy Boru has a very similar profile, and I reckon he is worth a saver at 21.020/1 or bigger.

I put him up 40-1 each way, ante-post, in the Lanzarote last time, so you know what happened next. Yes, he finished fifth to Yala Enki, albeit beaten 16 lengths.

But he is effectively 3lb lower here (he is 2lb out of the handicap as well), and hopefully he and his stablemate will get a good tow into the race from front-runner Yala Enki once again. If he does, then this course winner is a fairly-treated horse on his fourth over 2m4f here in November.

There are plenty of likely sorts in here against them - Baywing is on a roll but has gone up 46lb for his four wins, Yala Enki did really well last time but has his stamina to prove, and Saddlers Encore ran well on his return from a long break - but I like the profiles of my pair, at the prices, against the field.

Course winner Saroque can repeat the feat

The Grade 1 Scilly Isles at 14:25 is a classic watch-only race for me, and the 13:50, https://btfr.co/ ADD LINK, isn't of much betting interest either, but Saroque at 7.06/1 or better is worth an interest in the 3m handicap at 15:30.

He looked like he had a winning chance in the Welsh National at one stage last time out before emptying up the straight - he traded at 2.56/4 in the run - so in the circumstances I think being dropped 1lb is very fair, despite the fact that he was beaten 22 lengths come the finish.

We know the shorter trip holds no fears for this heavy 2m4f ground-course winner, and I think he could take some catching from the front.

Kayf is the call at Ffos Las

The Grade 2 Towton at 14:45 at Wetherby is a cracking contest, and actually features two horses I have nibbled for the RSA in the shape of Blaklion and Native River. But I can't see a bet at the prices.

Over at Ffos Las, I know it is standing joke but, with the ground already heavy and a pretty dire forecast, you have to expect the ground to be borderline unraceable if - and that must be a big if - the meeting goes ahead.

The Welsh Champion Hurdle at 14:05 has been won by the class horses in its three year history but I am going to back Kayf Moss at 10.09/1 or better.

The argument for him is pretty straightforward in that he has course form figures of 22512; the most recent run being a second to Silsol in this race last season, and he is 4lb lower here. And he ran respectably enough on his return to hurdles at Chepstow last time.

Expect him to revert to front-running tactics here, and that could be the key to a much-improved performance.

A measure of how bad the ground could be is underlined by the fact that the distance of the Welsh Wales National at 15:15 has been reduced 3m4f to 3m1f60yd in the hope that more horses will complete (only two did last year). But only seven runners line up here, anyway.


Recommended Bets
Back Kayf Moss at 10.09/1 in the 14:05 at Ffos Las
Back Invicta Lake at 21.020/1 in the 15:00 at Sandown
Back Little Boy Boru at 21.020/1 in the 15:00 at Sandown
Back Saroque at 7.06/1 or better in the 15:30 at Sandown