Saturday Racing Tips: Rye House a tasty bet at Newmarket

Two picks from York on Saturday for Tony
Two picks from York on Saturday for Tony

A busy Saturday of racing on Channel 4 to look forward to and a number of well priced runners have caught Tony Calvin's eye. Here are his best bets...

"The simple bets are often the most effective, and Secret Witness has a lot going for him, so take odds of 13.012/1 or better. The handicapper has dropped him a very generous 2lb for a good fifth over course and distance last time, he is a course winner who goes well with cut in the ground, and he is well enough drawn in seven."

Back Secret Witness in the 14:50 at York at 13.012/1 or better

Newmarket 15:35 - Rye House

I don't normally side with favourites, but I do when I think there is still a bit of juice in the price and Rye House at odds [of 4.5] or better certainly looks worth a nibble. 
 
Well, more of a hearty mouthful really, and he is my nap of a very competitive day's racing on Channel 4. It wouldn't surprise me if he went off at 5/2 or shorter in a winnable race.
 
Given that Ryan Moore said in his Betfair column that the horse would come on for his first start in a year on his reappearance at York earlier in the month, I was very surprised to see him go off as the 4/1 favourite in a hugely-competitive 18-runner race there.
 
As it transpired, he ran a very promising race to finish fifth, and would have finished a fair bit closer than the four lengths or so he was beaten had he not been hampered in the final furlong, and that should have set him up nicely for this.
 
This longer trip on soft ground is what he wants, he should strip a lot fitter today, and this looks an easier task than he faced first time out at York.  And this is a horse having only his eighth start, remember. 
 
Granted, he is a fragile horse and has had his issues in the past two years, notably a chipped pelvis last season. But, if all is well, I'll be very surprised if he is out of the frame here, and more than a touch disappointed if he is beaten.

Newmarket 15:00 - Regal Parade

I was thinking Rye House could be the second leg of a quickfire Ryan Moore double following Don't Bother Me in the 15:00 and it could well be.
 
But I certainly wasn't expecting Don't Bother Me to be disputing favouritism after a moderate effort at Ascot last time. 
 
He is undoubtedly a very interesting contender stepped back down to 6f for the first time since his debut, dropped 1lb from Ascot, and with forcing tactics on soft ground over this trip, with cheekpieces on for the first time, likely to bring about a much better effort. But I was hoping for a fair bit bigger than the price he is currently trading at.
 
At the prices though, I am going to give the 10-year-old Regal Parade a shot at odds of 13.012/1 or bigger.
 
A Group 1 winner over 6f five years ago, he finds himself racing off just 90 these days. And that is 7lb lower than when a good sixth in the Ayr Gold Cup last season, and 2lb lower than when showing definite signs of a return to form when seventh at York last time.
 
Soft ground suits this old-stager well and he is worth a chance at double-figure odds.

Haydock 14:40 - Here Comes When 

The four listed and group races at Haydock look very tricky, but I am going to take a chance with Here Comes When stepped up in class in the Timeform Jury Stakes at odds of 9.08/1 or better.
 
He is the lowest-rated horse in this nine-runner race and is mixing it with horses than haven't been disgraced in Group 1/2 company.
 
But he made a big impression when running away with a handicap off a mark of 95 at Chester on his reappearance in a good time - from a well-regarded sort in Abseil, who was heavily punted for a Sandown handicap on Thursday night before being withdrawn - and it could be that a gelding operation prior to that victory has been the making of him.
 
Soft ground clearly suits him well, and we will see how good he is today. I am willing to pay to find out.
 
I am not having any other bets on the Haydock card, but Noble Storm came closest in the 5f sprint at 15:15.
 
York 14:20 - Clever Cookie 

Clever Cookie did us a big favour when winning at York and, like Here Comes When, is another horse stepping up in class after a very impressive handicap success.
 
He steps up 4f in trip on the return to the same track today, but I don't anticipate that being a problem for this strong-traveller - he was doing all his best work late on at York, over 1m4f at Doncaster previously -  and I can't resist having a small punt on him at odds of 8.07/1.
 
I suspect there is plenty more to come on the Flat from a horse who was a big improver over hurdles during the winter, and was expecting him to be nearer the 9/2 mark.

York 14:50 - Secret Witness
 
Alfred Hutchinson would get my vote in the opener at 13:50, just not quite enough to get me unloading, but I will throw one more dart at the board in Secret Witness.
 
The simple bets are often the most effective, and Secret Witness has a lot going for him, so take odds of 13.012/1 or better.
 
The handicapper has dropped him a very generous 2lb for a good fifth over course and distance last time, he is a course winner who goes well with cut in the ground, and he is well enough drawn in seven.  Basically, he should run his race and that may be good enough.

Jamaican Bolt is a big danger and I wouldn't put anyone off having a saver on him at around the same price. He is far more effective at this minimum trip, though it remains to be seen whether being stalled in 19 of 19 is a dream or a nightmare.

Recommended Bets
Back Clever Cookie in the York 14:20 at 8.07/1 or better
Back Here Comes When in the 14:40 at Haydock at 9.08/1 or better
Back Secret Witness in the 14:50 at York at 13.012/1 or better
Back Regal Parade in the 15:00 at Newmarket at 13.012/1 or better
Back Rye House in the 15:35 at Newmarket at 4.57/2 or better

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