Saturday Racing Tips: Back Eccleston to enjoy the softening conditions

Saturday's betting markets could be thrown into chaos as and when trainers discover how much rain has landed at tracks in the previous 24 hours - expect non-runners, Rule 4s, changing place terms, and plenty of them - and that could be particularly true of Ripon, as connections declared on fast ground on Thursday morning.

Hopefully, I am being overly-pessimistic.

After all, every long-range forecast has been predicting rain all over the country since the start of the week, so trainers knew what they were getting into, and at the time of writing it is obviously hard to gauge how much would have fallen at the Channel 4 tracks at Ripon, Newmarket and Newbury.

Ripon 15:30

It is fair to assume that that Ripon will be on the easy side considering the rain that was in the area on Friday morning - 21mm as at 9am - and that leads me to Eccleston at odds of 13.012/1 in the Great St Wilfrid.

As you would expect from a 20-runner sprint handicap, there are shedloads of possible winners. High on anyone's list has to be the likes of Fast Track, Don't Touch and Spinatrix but I am drawn to Eccleston, who is the sole representative of the David O'Meara yard who has won this race for three of the last four years.

It is clear from his record that a substantial amount of rain won't inconvenience him at all. And his Haydock win over 6f on good ground in May proves that he can handle a decent surface, too.

And that Haydock victory also marks him out as a well-handicapped horse off just a 1lb higher mark here. Granted, it was a bunch finish but the runner-up won on his most recent start at Ayr, and the third, fourth and fifth all won next time out. That looks pretty strong form to me.

He hasn't got his head in front since but his run last time suggested that he is ready to strike here. O'Meara took the opportunity of giving the horse a sighter of this course and distance, and of a visor for the first time, and let's just say that I bet that he wasn't disappointed by what he saw.

The horse was immediately tacked over to the rail from his wide draw, and I thought he would have probably won had his rider pulled him out for his run on the outside at the furlong marker. As it was, his effort came all too late and he was beaten little over a length into fifth.

He will get a good tow into the race from the soft-ground speedster Poyle Vinnie next to him in stall one, and everything is set fair for a big run it seems.

Newbury 15:45

One race where I do fear a fair few non-runners is the Hungerford Stakes at 15:45 at Newbury and that makes tipping horses very difficult.

There was at least 13mm of rain at the track on Friday morning which turned the course soft, and that alone may be enough to see the likes of Limato (just pulled out as I write in fact), Safety Check and Adaay wait for another day, even if a dry day on Saturday is forecast.

Such withdrawals would of course be good news for my 10-1 ante-post selection Here Comes When - read the piece here - and I'd still make him my idea of the likeliest winner. He is a fair tool on soft ground.

Newbury 15:10

Elsewhere on the Newbury card, if it turns soft expect Dessertoflife to be popular in the 14:00, and King George third Romsdal would be a worthy favourite in the Geoffrey Freer at 14:35.

But neither race has a great betting shape to me and I was initially swayed by the chances of Mullionheir in the 15:10.

I'm sure that Mujassum will be on everyone's short list after his runaway Salisbury win, his first start since being gelded. But he is 14lb higher and in a deeper race, and he is opposable.

Top of my list to take him on was, initially at least, Mullionheir, even if his two earlier efforts with cut in the ground haven't been earth-shattering.

He has proved himself a versatile horse with his all-weather exploits and the form of his Windsor win and his subsequent fourth to subsequent Wokingham winner Magical Memory at Newmarket mark him down as a horse still on the up. He has been given a month's break to freshen him up after a busy start to the campaign, and that is another positive.

The big problem is the combination of 7f and soft ground - he didn't quite last home over 7f at Goodwood on good ground in May - so I'll have to pass.

Newmarket 14:50

Even though they got 8mm at Newmarket on Thursday, it looks like being good ground at worse at HQ on Saturday. But it looks a tricky punting card to me.

I think In Ken's Memory could have been let in lightly in the nursery at 13:40, and Crew Cut looks to have a good chance of following up his 2013 win in the "greys" race at 14:15.

But neither particularly floats my betting boat at the prices, and my only bet on the card is Primrose Valley at 13.012/1 in the 14:50.

She has a 1lb pull for the head Roosey finished in front of her in the afore-mentioned Newmarket handicap won Magical Memory over course and distance last month, and that looks rock-solid form with plenty coming out of that race and winning or going close.

And I thought that she would have bustled up the winner with a clearer run in the Shergar Cup last week. Emma Jayne Wilson settled her on the rail but she was constantly denied a run from the 2f pole, eventually having to switch to the outside and being beaten only 3 ½ lengths in fourth after a very troubled passage.

Off the same mark here, and with Tom Marquand taking 5lb off, I give her a leading chance. Hopefully, being drawn 18 of 18 isn't a big negative, but it's undoubtedly a concern.

Recommended Bets

Back Primrose Valley at 13.012/1 in the 14:50 at Newmarket
Back Eccleston at 13.012/1 in the 15:30 at Ripon

Already Recommended

Back Here Comes When at 10-1 each way for the Hungerford with the Betfair Sportsbook