Saturday Racing Tips: Play your cards right and back Mr Red Clubs

Tony Calvin
13 September 2013

Tony has a massive priced fancy at Chester

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It's day four of the St Leger Festival and Tony Calvin has two fancies from the Doncaster card but his main pick of the day is a massive priced outsider at Chester...

Recommended Bets:

Back Cable Bay in the 14:05 at Doncaster at 7.06/1 or better

Back Mr Red Clubs in the 14:20 at Chester at 21.020/1 or better

Back Confessional in the 14:40 at Doncaster at 16.015/1 or better

Chester 14:20 - Mr Red Clubs

I was going to concoct a pun-tastic intro around his name, but I am so convinced by his chances at a big price that I just have to blurt it out (ed: thanks - pun left for the headline).

Mr Red Clubs simply has to be backed at 21.020/1 or better in the 14:20. He will probably be a bigger price early doors, but I could see him becoming a gamble, so we will err on the side of caution with the guide price.

Now, many may immediately write him off in this 7f122yd handicap because he is drawn nine of 13, and doesn't come here in the best of form, most recently in a 1m2f handicap at Nottingham at the start of August. And those are obvious concerns.

But dismiss the doubts, and get stuck in. Because that's where the negatives end.

With all due respect to the Group 1-winning trainer Tim Pitt - who won two races with the horse, and sent him out to finish placed in a decent handicap last summer - I think the biggest plus to his chances is the switch of stables to Michael Appleby.

And not just because the last two times this horse has changed yards - from Paul Flynn to Des Donovan to Pitt - it has won first time up for his new handler. The horse clearly doesn't mind a change of scenery.

Appleby, who banged in a winner at Wolverhampton on Thursday night, is an excellent up-and-coming trainer, and he did me a huge favour when Shirley's Pride won at Catterick in April on his first start for him, having been switched from John Holt.

He has inherited a horse who is ridiculously well-handicapped on his best form. He is now a staggering 18lb lower than when third to Fulbright in a soft ground 7f handicap at Newmarket last June.

That is some serious relenting from the handicapper in a relatively short space of time.

It could be that the horse lost his confidence, or maybe suffered an injury, after falling over hurdles at Sedgefield last September, and that has taken its toll; he was out for five months after that fall, after all.

But the move to Appleby could just be what he needs to be revitalised, and the step down to this trip will suit him too. He has made all over 7f & 1m1f in the past but probably won't be able to go from the front from stall nine, though he has won from off the pace, too.

He could well blow out again - and everyone knows what a negative a wide draw is at Chester - but he is definitely worth the risk for the reasons outlined above.

Obviously, the St Leger is big race of the day at Doncaster, but it is a real head-scratcher. The best value in the race is long gone - one firm apparently went 4-1 about Leading Light starting favourite on Thursday morning - and I am happy to just sit and watch.

Doncaster 14:05 - Cable Bay

I will play in the opener though, and suggest backing Cable Bay at 7.06/1 or better. He has proven form in Group 2 company, having finished second in the Richmond at Goodwood and was only beaten a length in a soft-ground Gimcrack last time.

If the forecast rain arrives overnight then that wouldn't be an issue, and his pedigree suggests the step up to 7f will suit.

Doncaster 14:40 - Confessional

For our last bet of the day, we got to the Portland and my pin has landed on Confessional; back him at 16.015/1 or better.

He has been raised 6lb for a back-to-form win over 5f at Haydock last time. But that shouldn't be too much of a problem as he has been competitive off similar marks in the none-too-distant past, is suited by cut, and is effective over 5f and 6f, so this intermediate trip should be fine.

He has also run one of his better races at this track, when fourth to Sole Power in the Scarbrough Stakes at this meeting last year, and he has a lot going for him in an admittedly fiercely competitive handicap.