Saturday Racing Tips: A trio of selections for Lockinge day

Price is everything in betting - far too many people back what they fancy, regardless of the odds - and that is the only reason that I am deserting Imperial Aviator in Newbury's London Gold Cup at 16:30.

I flagged the horse's chances up on RUK's "Betting Lab" on Thursday night, and was staggered when the first bookmaker to open up betting on the race on Friday morning went 11-1.

Of course, it couldn't last - and I tweeted as much - and it was quickly backed into 15-2. And then Ulysses, the horse he beat in a Leicester maiden, hosed up at Newbury and the price went into freefall, and then 4-1 was the best price available.

I hope some of you got the double-figure odds yesterday but I can't play at his current odds of 5.04/1.

Don't get me wrong, I think he is the right favourite - he is well drawn in three, looks very attractively weighted, his stable have won this race in recent seasons with Time Test and Al Kazeem, and it is interesting that Qatar Racing bought a half-share of the horse on Thursday - but the bird has flown regarding his price.

It is not as if there aren't plenty of likely candidates up against him here - this is a 3yo handicap, after all - and I think Gawdawpalin is a fair price at 22.021/1.

There isn't much of a story to his chances and he doesn't have the sexy profile of others in here but we know that he handles testing conditions, and that he comes here as an improving and in-form horse.

He bumped into a very well-handicapped horse in Shabbah at Bath last time, the winner subsequently winning under his penalty, and pulled 4 lengths clear of the third.

A 4lb rise for that run looks fair, so he is weighted to run well. Hopefully Sam Hitchcott doesn't put up any overweight at 8st 3lb, as that is close to his minimum.

Eagle not a certainty to land

Earlier on the card Eagle Top is the obvious class horse in the 14:45 and it is hard to quibble with his odds of 1.834/5, though I wouldn't want to be backing him myself.

Yes, he has 8lb and more in hand of this field on his King George second but he did get beaten first time up last season and if he isn't cherry-ripe for his return then this ground - though it is now officially good to soft - could find him out. And in Carnachy and Ayrad he faces race-fit and improving rivals.

Dhahmaan can place at least

I think Dhahmaan is worth a win and place nibble at 11.010/1 and 3.02/1 respectively in the 15:20.

Yes, he has over two lengths to find with the favourite Dream Dubai on their Ascot run last time and July Cup entry Remarkable looks a very dangerous improver, but I wasn't expecting him to be so big.

His only defeat in four starts last season came at the hands of a subsequent runaway Group 2 winner, and I thought he just got tired on his comeback run after travelling well for a long way.

Lockinge a hard puzzle to solve

The Lockinge Stakes at 15:55 is obviously the big race of the day and how you approach the race may be largely dictated as to how you see the ground riding. Although none of us know that, obviously.

As I said earlier, the going has been changed to good to soft this morning, and that is obviously great news for the likes of Limato and Euro Charline, but quick, drying conditions on the back of the 35mm of rain that the course took on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could make it gluey and hard work.

I am going to sit this one out but if I were going to play then I would side with Belardo at 8.88/1. He was given far much to do at Sandown last time, and in the circumstances ran a blinder to finish two lengths fourth to Toormore and Dutch Connection, even if the winner was giving him 3lb.

Fill-e your boots with nicely weighted Vive Ma

I think Vive Ma Fille could take some catching in the 15:00 at Newmarket and is worth a few quid at 8.615/2.

Hopefully, she can get the run of the race from the front here and if coming back to the form she showed when fifth in the Goodwood Cup then she is attractively weighted off a mark of 97.

Of course, she may be flattered by that Goodwood run - she went up 15lb for it, and has come down 5lb since - but she has other form that entitles her to consideration and 1m6f on fast ground could arguably be her optimum conditions.

Race Day and Suqoor the marginal calls

Race Day looks a fair price at 6.611/2 in a trappy 7f listed race at 15:35 though I can let that race pass without an interest.

I will also refrain from taking a financial interest in the 16:10 though Suqoor at 10.09/1 is a fair price.

This is obviously a very competitive sprint handicap and he has gone up 9lb for his Lingfield success over 7f. But the runner-up has won well since, and he has plenty of pace, so the step back down to 6f shouldn't be an issue.

However, I'll just stop short of putting him up.

Good luck today.

Recommended Bets

Back Vive Ma Fille at 8.615/2 in the 15:00 at Newmarket
Back Dhahmaan at 11.010/1 win and 3.02/1 place in the 15:20 at Newbury
Back Gawdawpalin at 22.021/1 in the 16:30 at Newbury