Saturday Racing Tips: Chicquita nicely priced for the Irish Oaks

Irish Oaks, The Curragh 18:15 - Chicquita

RTE and ATR viewers are going to witness the class race of the weekend, the Irish Oaks at The Curragh, and hopefully they will see Chicquita strolling to victory. Preferably in a straight line.

On form alone, she arguably should be disputing favouritism here with Talent. But she is on offer at odds of 8.07/1 on Betfair, which makes her a decent bet.

Clearly, she comes with something of a temperament warning, which probably explains her inflated price. That and the doubts about the fast ground, on which she is unproven. However, with one thought on Alive Alive Oh's participation, hopefully The Curragh will water extensively on Friday night.

For a filly having just her second start, Chicquita suffered a shocking, and somewhat, bizarre experience when strolling to victory at Saint-Cloud in May. She hit a hedge when clear in the closing stages and took a very nasty tumble.

Given that fall, it was somewhat surprising to see Alain De Royer-Dupre pitch her straight into Group 1 company in the Prix de Diane next time, but she justified that decision and more by finishing an excellent four length runner-up to the much talked-about Treve.

And she would have finished a lot closer had she not hung when making her charge, from last place, in the final two furlongs.

Now, that is a big concern, especially for a Montjeu filly who may still be remembering the Saint-Cloud tumble. I think there was a bit of tail-swishing, too.

But when speaking to Ryan Moore for his assessment of the race for one of his Betfair columns this weekend, he reckons that she may have been heading for the exit at Chantilly, so it may have been excusable.

If it was - and she isn't as unstable as some may think - then we are in business, as I think she is the best filly in here on raw ability. The Chantilly winner is clearly highly-regarded, the third had previously won the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary, and the fourth home had finished third in the French 1,000.

That looks stronger form depth-wise to Talent's admittedly wide-margin Oaks win, or the visually impressive wins from the likes of Riposte and Alive Alive Oh.

De Royer-Dupre was clearly delighted by his filly at Chantilly -  he said that "she must be very good to do that because she lacks experience and professionalism" - and he won this race with Shawanda in 2005. And having Johnny Murtagh, five times a winner of this race, on board is no negative either.

Newbury 15:50 - Alutiq 

On Channel 4, Market Rasen and the Weatherbys Super Sprint aside, we have small field races where it hard to see much of a punting edge.

I will stay loyal to Alutiq though. I sided with her at a big price in the Queen Mary, and she ran a blinder to finish seventh considering she was drawn on the wrong side of the track, "winning" the race on the stands side.

She was only beaten just over four lengths there and that looks to have been one of the better Queen Mary's of recent years, even though the winner disappointed next time.

That gives her excellent form and time claims here and I just hope that being drawn 18 of 25 doesn't prove her undoing again. If not, she must run a huge race. Look for odds of 8.07/1 and bigger.

13:50 Newmarket - Trail Blaze 

For my third and final bet, I will take a chance on Trail Blaze.

This looks a very competitive race, and Es Que Love nearly did us a massive favour when just nailed by a well-handicapped horse in the Bunbury Cup last week.

He must go well again but the problem is he keeps on getting raised for being beaten, and he is 4lb higher today over an extra furlong.

So at the likely odds I will take a chance on Trail Blaze.

He has actually dropped down the weights in spite of some fair placed efforts of late - he is 1lb lower than when third over 7f at Newcastle last time - so I think he is fairly weighted.

Although he has form over 1m, I was concerned that the step back up in trip wouldn't be ideal in what is likely to be a strongly-run race with Es Que Love in the field. But his trainer was talking about trying him over 1m2f at one stage last season, so I hope I am worrying unduly.

I just get a feeling that the market could miss him here, with other "sexy" horses like Snowboarder in the field, and any odds of 10.09/1 or bigger will tempt me in.

Recommended Bets

Back Trail Blaze in the 13:50 at Newmarket at 10.09/1 or better
Back Alutiq in the 15:50 at Newbury at 8.07/1 or better
Back Chicquita in the 18:15 at Curragh at 8.07/1