Saturday Racing Tips: Bill looks a big price in the Becher Chase

The absence of Sprinter Sacre from the Tingle Creek may have robbed the race of its superstar and taken a fair percentage off the Sandown gate, but all bookmakers would have been secretly delighted by his no-show.

Of course, it wouldn't be the done thing for them to admit it - silence is often golden in horseracing - but it doesn't take Inspector Morse to deduce that they are going to see more trade on a competitive nine-runner race than they would have with a 1-8 poke in the line-up.

Admittedly, I didn't spend the equivalent of a two-hour episode from the real-ale swilling sleuth trawling through the race. But I gave it a thorough investigation all the same, and still concluded that there was no betting case worth pursuing.

There is little between the top three in the betting, who take out over 80 per cent of the market, and making a convincing case for one of the outsiders proved troublesome.

I toyed with recommending Oiseau De Nuit at odds of 20+. And if I were one of those tipsters who are happy to post a tip with next to no cogent explanation, perhaps I would have.

But I do like to make a convincing case before I tip losers. It makes your followers feel better, I find.

However, Swing Bill certainly looks a decent bet at 18.017/1 or bigger in the Becher Chase at 14:05 at Aintree, and it is surprisingly easy to make a case for him at those odds.

Liverpool owes me a winner as I spent the thick-end of eight hours getting home from there on Thursday after visiting my sons at University - in fact, I need a steady supply of winners just to pay for their bar bills - so Swing Bill would be a very apt winner.
 
And there are plenty of reasons to believe that he should be a fair deal shorter in the betting.

Now, he is getting on a bit and I am sure that the trends boys will tell me that a 12yo can't possibly win this. After all, Hello Bud was two years older at 14yo when winning this race last year, so he is probably a touch too youthful...

To be serious, the case for Swing Bill starts with a couple of excellent recent efforts over these fences, namely a sixth in the Grand National, and a two length fourth to Hello Bud in this race last year, when the testing conditions probably weren't ideal. The better ground here should be fine.

The handicapper has been generous in dropping him 2lb since April, and another important pointer to Swing Bill's chances is that he comes here fresh.

He bolted up on his reappearance at Cheltenham last season - he also won first time up the year before - and I suspect that, given he is now owned by the new Grand National sponsors Halewood, that this race has been on the cards for some time.

And David Pipe has few equals - "Target, Silence, Declare, Punt, Win" should be their stable motto - when it comes to readying a horse for a big prize off a lay-off. 

I can see Baby Run going well at odds of around 29.028/1 despite his long lay-off - he is reported in really good form by connections - but I am happy to go into battle in this 24-runner race with just the one selection.

Elsewhere on the Aintree card, I would be prepared to give Betfair Chase disappointment The Giant Bolster a chance in the 14:40, and Dunowen Point very nearly tempted me in the Grand Sefton. 

But the latter is forecast to go off at around the 7-1 mark, and I was expecting a little bit bigger in such a competitive 16-runner field.  
Price is all in betting if you are looking for long-term profits - too many punters and tipsters go for quick wins at deflated odds - so he is reluctantly passed over.

I am getting involved in the 14-runner staying chase at 15:35 at Sandown though, and suggest a decent bet on There's No Panic at odds of 13.012/1 or bigger. 

He shaped as if coming to hand over 3m at Ascot last time, and it was a surprise to see the handicapper drop him 3lb for that effort.
He recorded two good placed efforts over 3m1f at this course last season (both in fair times), and if Daryl Jacob can get him into a decent jumping rhythm then I think he is the pick of the weights. Remember, this is a horse that went off favourite for the 29-runner Topham in April.

The one doubt about There's No Panic is the trip - other than his occasionally sketchy jumping - as he seemed to run out of gas after travelling well for a long way in the bet365 Gold Cup over track and trip last season, but this is far less competitive and classy a race.

There will be a panic to "green up" if he comes there cruising two out, so I suggest taking out some in-running insurance by putting in to lay at least your stake back at around 2-1 in running.

Recommended Bets 
Back Swing Bill @ 18.017/1 or bigger in the Becher Chase (Aintree, 14:05) 
Back There's No Panic @ 13.012/1 or bigger in the 15:35 at Sandown