Saturday Racing Tips: AP can give Merry King the edge in Grand National Trial

Haydock 14:55 - Merry King 

The handicapper has been a bit harsh on Merry King by raising him 2lb for his third in a muddling Peter Marsh over 3m1f here last time - though admittedly he was 1lb out of the handicap that day - but not as severe as I think AP may be on him if and when the horse hits his customary flat spot tomorrow.

And it is the presence of the champion jockey on board persuades me that Merry King is worth a small-stakes nibble at odds of 8.615/2 or better in the Grand National Trial.

The seven-year-old has actually underperformed when AP has ridden him in the past - the horse won four of his first 10 starts, yet McCoy was nought from four on him in that period - and Richie McLernon has done an admirable job on a clearly tricky horse.

But I don't think many would argue that AP getting back on board is a negative, especially on a horse that increasingly looks like it needs its mind making up for him.

Merry King ran another infuriating race here in a first-time visor last time, looking set to finish out with the washing when dropping away three out before picking up again in great style late on, so much that he was beaten less than two lengths by Wychwoods Brook.

He has run two of his best races at this track - he was only just touched off by Cannington Brook over 3m here last season - and I think the combination of the step back up in trip, bottomless ground and AP on board could just see this horse improve to take this.

Because if, as I suspect, then he has been saving a bit for himself, then Saturday is the day when he is going to be asked to think again.

He is clearly not straightforward and this is a very competitive race - the Pipe stable clearly think Our Father, sent off favourite for the Hennessy, is a lot better than his mark of 145 and it would be no surprise to see him sluice up, or Loch Ba run a big race - but he is definitely worth chancing at a decent price.

Haydock 14:20 - Cross Kennon

Many people will have Celestial Halo down as a banker in the Rendlesham Hurdle, and on official ratings he should outclass these, but Paul Nicholls reports that he will need the run today on his comeback from an infected foot that forced him to miss the Long Walk. And in this ground, that surely makes him vulnerable.

So I can't resist taking a swing at Cross Kennon at odds of 17.016/1 or bigger.

He ran no sort of race here last time but the blinkers are on for the first time today, and if they bring him back to form he has a good a chance as any if Celestial Halo does under perform.

He actually won this race on heavy ground three years ago, finished runner-up in 2012 and third last season, and you have to suspect that he has been aimed at this race since his disappointing run here in December.

Ascot

I have nothing against backing at short prices - I am more than happy to bet 10/11 on a rugby handicap market and pretty much do on a daily basis - but, long-term in horse racing, there is absolutely no mileage in continually tipping or backing at skinny odds.

So while I wouldn't put anyone off backing Captain Chris at around the 2.111/10 mark in the Betfair Ascot Chase at 15:50 - he is a top class horse over this trip on soft ground, going right-handed - it is not a bet for me.

Particularly as if there are two of three in here that could give him a race if bouncing back to their best - namely the likes of Hunt Ball, Kauto Stone and Riverside Theatre - and I don't think that we have seen the best from Rolling Aces, either, and he could be the each-way play here at around 8.07/1.

Most of the other races at Ascot don't appeal much from a betting perspective either - though Many Clouds would be my pick in the Reynoldstown at 14:05, and Grand National favourite Teaforthree my preferred in the 3m handicap chase at 14:40 - though I was nearly tempted in by Bourne again.

But, with all due respect to Adrian Lane, Bourne is a very difficult ride and needs a firm hand, and I would rather a more senior jockey was on board if parting with my cash.

Ascot 15:15 - Dan Breen

So I reluctantly and belatedly switched my allegiance to Dan Breen at odds of 34.033/1 or bigger in the 15:15, where he is likely to be the outsider of the party.

He has form over this trip - he was short-headed by Aerial in a Grade 3 chase on good ground over 2m4f at Newbury two years ago - but the issue is whether he can last home over it in this ground.

But he is so well-handicapped that I have to give him a spin at the price, even if he is clearly the stable's second string behind favourite Heath Hunter.

Dan Breen has been dropped 3lb as a result of his no-show in the Ladbroke here in December and he can now race off the same mark as when third in that race last season, where he finished 11 lengths clear of the fourth, Double Ross, in heavy ground.

Tom Bellamy - who rode Heath Hunter in his two wins this season - steered home the gambled-on Tullyesker Hill at Warwick last Saturday, and is decent value for his 7lb claim. And the less weight you carry in what will be desperate ground, the better.

Recommended Bets
Back Cross Kennon to win the 14:20 at Haydock at 17.016/1 or better
Back Merry King to win the 14:55 at Haydock at 8.615/2 or better
Back Dan Breen to win the 15:15 at Ascot at 34.033/1 or better