Saturday Racing Tips: A two-pronged attack for a soggy Betfair Hurdle

When the ground is as bad as it promises to be at Newbury and Warwick tomorrow - and, let's be honest, it has been nigh-on unraceable at most tracks for a few weeks now - the sensible course of action is to reduce your stakes.

A case of the deeper the ground, the deeper your pockets should be, because the going is likely to be so extreme and testing that it becomes a law unto itself, and even heavy -ground horses are not sure to act on it.

Newbury 15:35 - Montbazon and Alaivan

But there is a winner in every race, and I can't resist a little dart at Montbazon at 34.033/1 or better in the Betfair Hurdle.

Alan King has had a rough time of it recently, effectively shutting down his yard last month with a virus, but he is beginning to fire in the winners again and in Montbazon he has a horse handicapped to go very close in this £150,000 contest. In fact, he is just about the pick of these weights on his fourth in the 2012 Supreme.

The problem is that he has been off the course ever since with sore shins, and it would obviously be one hell of a training performance were King to produce him at concert pitch to win this. 

But reports suggest the horse has been giving his trainer all the right signals coming into this - apparently he has been working well with Thursday's Doncaster winner First Mohican - and it is surely a positive sign that he pitches him straight into this hugely competitive race, instead of a low-key comeback.

Either way, at around 34.033/1, I'll take my chances, so count me in.

I will go into the race two-handed though, as I can't resist a saver on Alaivan at odds of 18.017/1 or bigger.

I tipped him up at a massive price in the Ladbroke in December, only for the horse to run no sort of race. But he ran much better when second in heavy ground at Wincanton last time, and the handicapper would have given him 5lb more to carry here if he could have done after that improved effort.

I am relaxed about the fact that AP doesn't take the ride, as he wouldn't want to be beating himself to do 10st 6lb at this stage of the season. Indeed, he hasn't done that weight since November 15th. And Maurice Linehan is decent value for his 5lb claim, anyway.

If connections have been aiming Alaivan at this 150k race, then he is undoubtedly very well-treated on his, admittedly distant, best, which included good wins in Ireland and a third in the 2010 Triumph Hurdle. He rates a very good betting second-string.

The rest of the Newbury and Warwick cards promise to be very informative as regards Cheltenham next month, but I can't see much of an edge in these small-field conditions races at the prices at the time of writing.

Be lucky, whatever you back today.

Recommended Bets
Back Montbazon in the 15:35 at Newbury at 34.0 or better with a saver on Alaivan at 18.017/1 or better