Newmarket July Festival Day 1 Tips: Opposable favs on tricky Thursday card

It would be something of an understatement to say that the opening day of Newmarket's July meeting is tricky, and to be perfectly honest with you I was struggling to chisel out even a couple of small-stakes bets at first.

But then one in particular really grew on me at the price - more of that one later.

Potential improvers a big danger to form-boosted jolly

The opening race, the Bahrain Trophy at 14:10 is a case in point as regards the difficult nature of the card. It is a fascinating contest full of largely unexposed 3yos stepping up in trip, but an absolute head-scratcher of a race to punt on.

After Hawkbill's Eclipse win on Saturday, I am sure a few people's "analysis" of this race will begin and end with the horse he previously beat in the Tercentenary, Prize Money, and that is fair enough. He clearly has an excellent chance.

But Hawkbill clearly improved a fair deal at Sandown - though by how much is debatable given the 81-rated pacemaker was beaten only 5 lengths - and Prize Money has his stamina to prove, so I wouldn't be totally surprised if two or three in here improved past him, especially on this much faster ground. I can see him being weak in the betting from an opening line of around 9-4.

On official ratings, King Edward VII Stakes fourth Housesofparliament doesn't have to, as they are both rated 107, but you can expect a few in here to progress now they are given a greater test of stamina.

If I were going to have a bet in the race it would probably be Platitude, who ran a cracker from the widest draw to finish second to the fast-progressing Primitivo off a mark of 99 in the 1m4f King George V handicap at Royal Ascot and whose dam won a 1m6f Listed race. He also won his maiden on good to firm, and he rates a fair each way play at around the 6-1 mark.

July Stakes market leaders look rock solid

The July Stakes at 14:40 is problematical because the front two in the betting, Mehmas and Ardad, look rock-solid, and the quicker ground doesn't look to be an issue to either.

Coventry runner-up Mehmas bumped into a monster in Caravaggio at Ascot, and Ardad took off when running away with the Windsor Castle, just six days after winning on his debut, and they clearly bring the best form to the table here by some way. And those performances were backed up by the clock, too.

All of their eight opponents are going to have to step up a good deal on what they have achieved to date to trouble them. Of course, they could do - they are all winners and none of them have raced more than three times, for starters - but it's just that I wouldn't bet on it, at the prices.

Question mark over favourite means Muntazah is worth a punt

Then we get to the seven-runner Princess Of Wales Stakes at 15:15 but at least there is an angle here, in that Exosphere is surely an opposable favourite after his dire run, when 6-4 favourite, in the Hardwicke.

And he also carries a 3lb penalty for his win in the Jockey Club Stakes, and runner-up Simple Verse has hardly underlined the merit of that win, for all it was visually stunning.

The problem is what do we oppose him with? Or indeed, do we at all, given that connections are apparently very happy with the horse?

Official ratings point you towards one horse, and one horse only, and that is The Grey Gatsby, getting 3lb from the favourite. He ran respectably on soft ground in the Prince Of Wales's on his reappearance, and missed the Eclipse to come here, for which he appears to have been rewarded by his favoured fast ground.

However, even in a small field in which Big Orange looks the only pace angle, do we really see him as a 1m4f horse? I tend to think not, but then again the only time he has raced over the trip was in heavy ground over 1m4f in the Grand Prix De Paris two years ago. He will have plenty of backers at around the 5.04/1 mark.

I am going to suggest a few quid of Muntazah at 10.09/1, though.

He made his debut when just touched off in a maiden at this meeting last year on fast ground and he ran his best race yet in a light career when fourth in the Dante in May, in which he shaped better than the final result suggests.

The form of that York fourth isn't as strong as it looked at the time but connections have been patient with this hefty 3yo, who gets a sizeable age allowance from all his rivals here - Paul Hanagan will have to skip breakfast to do 8st 3lb - and promises to be ideally suited by 1m4f. His dam was third in the Oaks, and went on to stay 1m6f+ with a second in the Park Hill. He needs to improve a lot but the potential is certainly there.

Dhahmaan worth one more chance at big odds

Deeds Not Words did this column a massive favour when winning the 6f handicap on this card at 33-1 in 2014, and this year's 20-runner renewal at 15:45 is no easier to solve.

I have long since thought that Dhahmaan is a fair bit better than a 100-rated horse, but he has slightly disappointed me on his last two starts - the stable, in general, have had a modest 2016 to date - and I was going to look elsewhere and side with Show Stealer, winner on his reappearance and a good third in a nursery on this course last season.

Or, indeed, sit the race out totally.

But at a massive 26.025/1 - I'll be honest, I was expecting 12-1 - I am certainly willing to give Dhahmaan one more chance on his handicap debut.

I suppose you can give him excuses for that Log Out Island freak show at Newbury and, on reviewing the race again, he probably didn't shape too badly over an inadequate 5f from a wide draw under a 3lb penalty at Sandown last time.

He travels powerfully when on song, so hopefully Colm O'Donoghue can get him settled just off the pace in midfield and pounce late. Connections think he doesn't like fast ground, but he shaped okay on it at and Sandown and I hope they let him take his chance because I think he will go close to winning; I think cover in a strongly-run 6f is what he wants.

Cymric can land the 'get-out' stakes

Later on in the RUK races, the tricky Cymric could be worth a look in the 17:30 as his best race came on fast ground when he was just touched off in the Lagardere last season - it was quicker than the official good there - and he shaped much better in the St James's Palace Stakes last time.

He isn't a bad price at all at 9.08/1 back in Listed class, and is worth a small interest. I couldn't have Lumiere on my mind in this at the current prices, and what one firm were doing pricing her up as the 9-4 favourite on Tuesday afternoon is anyone's guess. She could well bounce back to form and win, but I'd be wanting 6-1+ myself to even start to consider her.

Recommended Bets

Back Muntazah at 10.09/1 in 15:15 at Newmarket
Back Dhahmaan at 26.025/1 in 15:45 at Newmarket
Back Cymric at 9.08/1 in the 17:30 at Newmarket