July Meeting Day One Tips: Back Hillstar to sparkle in the Princess of Wales' Stakes

In truth, Thursday's Newmarket Channel 4 card of small field condition races and handicaps are not really my bag but it's all about the price, and I have eked out a couple of small-stakes plays.

In fact, it was nearly double that (more of the fourth later) as I was very tempted to take a flier with Horseshoe Bay in the opener at 14:10, but it is fair to say that I was hoping for a touch bigger than 4.57/2, even in the absence of Fields Of Athenry.

I certainly wouldn't be in a hurry to back the favourite Mr Singh at around the 5/4 mark. Sure, he is the one to beat on his improved effort in finishing second in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. But that was a substandard renewal and I get the distinct impression that he is being priced up more on his trainer's record in this race - and comments earlier in the week which suggest the horse is his number one St Leger hope at this stage - rather than outstanding form claims.

And that is why I was looking to take him on, with Horseshoe Bay potentially top of that list.

He has a lot to find with the favourite on form but he was very impressive in winning a 1m4f maiden on the Rowley course in a good time in May, and the further he went the better he looked there (even if that doesn't stack up with his far more speed-orientated pedigree). But I won't be betting at the current prices myself, so I can hardly stick him up as a tip.

***

I was expecting a similar story in the 14:40 where, even in a very competitive July Stakes, I thought Sixth Sense would be too a touch too short for my liking. But a price of 10.09/1 was more than enough to lure me in.

You can clearly make a case for several of these but Sixth Sense is improving with his racing, and certainly shaped as though a step back down to 6f wouldn't be a problem when weakening out of it close home when third in the Chesham last time.

The speed figure he recorded there puts him in with a big shout, and I expected him to be more of a 6/1 poke. So we bet.

***

Hillstar is no 8.07/1 chance in the Princess Of Wales' Stakes at 15:15 and I will be backing him win and place.

Yes, Mahsoob is the sexy improver and the highly-rated Gospel Choir is the choice of Ryan Moore. But the latter's stablemate Hillstar is the form choice in here - he may be 1lb behind Second Step on official figures but that horse carries a 3lb penalty - and he looks too big each way at 7/1.

He was well below form in the Hardwicke on his reappearance but he tends to improve a good deal for his first run after a break, and he is as solid a Group 2 performer as you can wish for, even if he landed that valuable Grade 1 win when he beating last weekend's Monmouth winner Big Blue Kitten in the Canadian International last October.

He rarely runs a bad race in this company, including when second in this race last season, and he is a solid win and place play here.

***

I was very tempted by Awesome Power in the 15:45 and rate him much the likeliest winner of the race. But, again, I was a little disappointed by the current odds, so no bet.

He struck me as very much a handicapper to follow when winning over 1m1f at Sandown last time, and I think he has the potential to defy an 8lb rise in the weights, especially as the extra furlong will suit.

However, you can put a few against him here - a back-to-form Resonant would scare me if he got an easy lead on the rail - so a price at around the 9/2 mark just deterred me. I couldn't put you off him, if you are betting in the race, though.

Good luck.

Recommended Bets
Back Sixth Sense at 10.09/1 in the 14:40 at Newmarket
Back Hillstar at 8.07/1 in win and 2.77/4 in place at 15:15 at Newmarket