Racing pundit and tipster extraordinaire Tony Calvin is back with some more horses worth a look at on day three of York's Ebor Festival...
"You can see where I am coming from when I say this race is a bit of nightmare to solve. But I only tip what I am going to back, so I simply have to take the laughter on the chin and put up Goken once again at 60.059/1."
Back Goken at 60.059/1 in the 15:40 at York
I honestly can't recall a Group 1 race in which it is possible to make a case - a case, at the prices obviously - for so many of the field as in the 20-runner Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at 15:40.
Limato is the stand-out on form on his July Cup win but he is priced accordingly at 4.03/1 and if he starts slowly, as he is prone to do, then he will struggle to play catch-up on his first start over 5f against proven Group 1 speedsters.
King's Stand winner Profitable is next up in the betting on his return to 5f and it's easy to see why, while last year's winner Mecca's Angel - there is some rain forecast on Friday afternoon and connections will be hoping that it arrives earlier rather than later - and Molecomb winner Yalta getting heaps of weight are the only others in single figures.
The juvenile Yalta has to have a big chance at the weights and on the clock but whether he will get a solo on the front end as he did when dominating second-tier juveniles at Goodwood must be questionable. And actually it would probably be unwise to underestimate the other 2yo in here, Norfolk winner Prince Of Lir, even after his disappointing run in France last time.
It is easy to make a case for Group 1 winner Goldream from a low draw on his favoured fast ground after an excellent third in the King George last time after an absence. But, then again, Take Cover won that race, Washington DC was only a neck adrift in second and Easton Angel was probably unlucky not to win in fourth after meeting trouble in running.
You can see where I am coming from when I say this race is a bit of nightmare to solve. But I only tip what I am going to back, so I simply have to take the laughter on the chin and put up Goken once again at 60.059/1.
I did my money on him at Newmarket and Goodwood on his last two starts when he was a colossal drifter in the market. But I think he shaped well in the July Cup, where he probably failed to see out the 6f trip in this grade after travelling like a dream and not getting the best of runs until late, but his effort in the King George last time was undeniably modest.
It could be that he doesn't like that track though - he has run poorly on both his visits there now - and back on a flatter track could see him fulfil the abundant promise of his neck and a length third to Profitable and Cotai Glory in the King's Stand, where he only managed to get going in the last furlong after being denied a clear passage.
The rumour was that he had his breathing tweaked before that race and, if I am right about the undulating tracks not suiting since, then he is worth last one hurrah at the prices from what could be the best stall in one for the trainer-jockey combination on the mark with Syphax in the Acomb on Wednesday.
Trip To Paris would be my idea of the likeliest winner in the Lonsdale Cup at 14:30 after a promising comeback run over 1m2f, but in truth it doesn't make any appeal as a betting medium. Seven pretty tightly-knit runners, and not entirely consistent ones at that, aren't drawing me into a bet.
And the prices are pretty much where they should be - in the right order at least - in the City Of York Stakes at 15:05, with Nemoralia heading the betting.
She was below par in France last time but she was ridiculously impressive here earlier in the season, is the one to beat on her Coronation Stakes second, and 7f on fast ground should be fine for a filly with plenty of gears and class.
But she offers nothing in the way of value at her current price against plenty that you can make a case for, with Librisa Breeze particularly dangerous stepping up in class. In fact, on official ratings, this is a very tight and open race, far more than the betting would suggest, but I can't see an angle.
My old mucker Odeon is crying out "trust me" from the bottom of the weights in the opener at 13:55 - he is 2lb out of the handicap - after an excellent second at Thirsk last time.
He is moody but capable off this mark but I am going to side with Dominada at 21.020/1 or bigger.
There is nothing much to explain here. He comes here in decent nick and I think the return to 1m4f will suit him much better. Furthermore, first-time cheekpieces is an interesting move from Brian Ellison and I simply give him a better chance than his odds suggests.
Who knows what to make of the Convivial at 16:20. It always baffles me how anyone can have a strong opinion on a race full of unexposed, lightly-raced or un-raced juveniles, but each to his own.
Twin Sails has a race in him if he settles better and he could be the answer to the 16:55 if he does. There are others with similarly strong claims, notably Bobby Wheeler, but I am clearly in a rare forgiving mood today and I am going to side with Manson.
The memory of his deeply impressive Sandown win in May still lingers, despite two very poor runs from his next three starts, and that is enough to tempt me in at double-figure prices.
In between that Britannia disappointment and a shocker at Ascot last time where he finished last of 13 - I know he was keen there but something must have been amiss - he finished a good fourth at Newmarket despite racing away from the main action and I just feel that he has a race in him off 94 judged on that Esher win.
The handicapper does too, because he has kept him on that mark despite his subsequent defeats. At odds of 15.014/1 or bigger, I'll pay to find out.
You can read all my Horse Racing Tips for Saturday and Day 4 of the York Ebor Festival behind the link.
Back Dominada at 21.020/1 in the 13:55 at York
Back Goken at 60.059/1 in the 15:40 at York
Back Manson at 21.020/1 in the 16:55 at York