York Dante Meeting Tips: Muthmir to confirm his quality on the Knavesmire

It looks like the ground at York is quickening up ahead of this week's always-informative Dante meeting, which presents me with a dilemma in the opener at 14:10.

When I first started looking at the race on Monday afternoon, it was good to soft ground and a relatively unsettled forecast, so Tres Coronas, Satellite and Indy were my three against the field. Mahsoob is clearly a worthy favourite after overcoming a bad draw in impressive fashion at Newbury, but he is quickly dismissed on price grounds at around the 3-1 mark.

The problem is if - and it's a big if given recent weather forecasts, most recently at Musselburgh on Monday, have been rather inaccurate to say the least - the ground dries out to any faster than good then it will not be a positive for the trio.

Satellite is very interesting, having been gelded and dropped 4lb since last season, and with the hood re-fitted. He is weighted to win. But William Haggas is not afraid to pull his horses out if the ground is not ideal, just as he did when he withdrew this horse on fast ground at Goodwood last season.

And Indy, who was a bit too free first time up, has a marked soft-ground action.

I will kick myself if either of that pair obliges, but at the time of writing I am going to play safe for a change, and put up Tres Coronas at 12.011/1.

Now, all his best recent form has come with plenty of cut, so any "unexpected" rain would be welcome. But it is worth remembering that his then career-bests came on fast ground when he finished third over course and distance in July 2013 and then when occupying the same position in the Cambridgeshire on his next start.

And if the ground isn't an issue - and I don't expect a draw in 20 to be a problem either, as he was in 16 when running so well in this last year (though I wrongly thought the same with Chil The Kite from stall one at Ascot on Saturday) - then I expect a big run.

He comes here after an excellent, back-to-form second to the progressive Collaboration at Chester last week, and winning that Roodee contest last season was an immediate springboard to his career-best second to a certain Clever Cookie in this race.

So the quick turnaround isn't a problem - his owners like runners at this track, so it would have been planned anyway - and he is undeniably well-handicapped, off a 1lb lower mark than when runner-up to last week's Ormonde winner.

I toyed with two previous winners of the race in the 6f handicap, as 2011 victor Hoof It tends to run well when fresh and 2013 scorer Mass Rally, from an in-form stable, warmed up for this prize with one of his "intermittent eye-catchers" when fourth to Out Do at Pontefract, and has the hood and blinkers back on.

But I eventually plumped for the winner of that Pontefract race, Out Do, as I expected him to shorter than 14.527/2 in this competitive contest at 14:40.

He clearly surprised David O'Meara there, as the trainer reported that he would need the run, was unsure whether the track would suit, and his usual visor was left off. Little wonder why he went off at 14-1.

But he still won in emphatic fashion and fully deserved the subsequent 6lb rise in the weights. The visor is back on today, he is proven in big field sprints having won the Great St Wilfred last season, and also finished a good fifth to Muthmir on fast ground in the Skybet Dash cover course and distance last season. In short, he looks very solid in a wide-open race.

Apparently, connections are worried that Muthmir may be a little ring-rusty on his return but I am having none of it. He will be the top sprinter this season - sometimes you just have to believe - and I expect him to see off his rivals at odds of 6.611/2 in the 15:15.

This horse is destined for the top sprint prizes this season and he showed his potential when getting Paul Hanagan out of trouble when putting in an extraordinary performance to win the Portland off a mark of 100 on his final start. He will love these drying conditions, and could well outclass these, first run back or not.

I personally will be having a small-saver on Lucky Kristale too at 15.014/1 though, so I have to reflect that in my tipping.

She gave every indication that she was ready to return to her Group 2-winning juvenile best when - how shall I put this - ridden with an eye to the future when fifth on her on return at Newmarket. If she can build on that run in these drying conditions then she could well be the one to give Muthmir most to do.

One thing is for sure. If rain arrives and it is on the easy side, then don't expect me to be a happy bunny on Twitter tomorrow afternoon. No change there, then, I hear you say...

It wouldn't surprise if the winner of Musidora at 15:45 came from outside of the front two in the market, for all that Together Forever and Star Of Seville clearly boast the best form claims.

The most likely of the outsiders to spring the market surprise is Pandora, and I wouldn't put anyone off her at around 7-1, for all I won't personally be getting involved.

Granted, the bare form of her Doncaster maiden win leaves her with at least a stone to find with the principals, but it was the manner of the victory - and the fact that she belied obvious inexperience to get up close home - that was so encouraging. It's a big ask, but she could be up to answering it.

Best of luck.

Recommended Bets
Back Tres Coronas at odds of 12.011/1 in the 14:10 at York
Back Out Do at odds of 14.013/1 in the 14:40 at York NON-RUNNER
Back Muthmir at odds of 6.86/1 in the 15:15 at York
Back Lucky Kristale at odds of 15.014/1 in the 15:15 at York