St Leger Preview: Shear stamina can win the day

That concepts like the Triple Crown have been formed, rather than crafted, is part of their romantic appeal. Though you suppose that it has to be that way- very few would sign up to the thankless task of actually drawing up something that's just bound to prove contentious.

Take the US and UK versions of the Triple Crown. In America, their Triple Crown doesn't span far enough in time and race conditions for some and even among its acolytes can lead to some unbecoming demonstrations of entitlement. In the UK it's much tougher, though to the point where the river has gone around the rock rather than over it. This year sees us in a fairly typical position: Kingston Hill, strictly not good enough to win either the Guineas or the Derby, is a standout on form in the relatively unfashionable St Leger.

That is a deliberately harsh assessment of Kingston Hill. In fuller terms he's a likeable, high-class colt who after just six starts has a rating that exactly matches Timeform's assessment of an "average Group 1 winner". It's just that this very fact further demonstrates that the St Leger is a substandard Group 1.

In theory, that should make Kingston Hill the bet in the St Leger at 3/1. Form is not the only consideration, though. If it were the likes of Encke, Masked Marvel and Mastery, to use examples from this century alone, wouldn't have their name on a classic. In Kingston Hill's case, we have no assurances from his connections (who are keen to avoid firmer ground and showed as much quite emphatically at York) or even his pedigree that he'll turn up at his best over Doncaster's extended 14 furlongs.

History and Group 1 status are enough to virtually ensure the St Leger goes to a smart three-year-old, so for all the favourite has been eliminated from betting consideration our list remains short. You don't fancy that anything besides Kingston Hill and the trio of Snow Sky, Romsdal and Windshear has the ability to win under normal circumstances.

We'll discuss Romsdal first as he approaches from the same direction as Kingston Hill. Both came up short, though with credit, in the Derby off the back of an encouraging trial and were unable to show their best against older horses on their only starts since. Romsdal is arguably more stoutly bred than Kingston Hill and certainly more lightly raced, so at a bit more than double the price he makes for a more appealing betting prospect, though not quite the most appealing in the field.

Besides the Derby, trials at Goodwood and York are the main tributaries to the St Leger river and they often carry a deceptively strong current. The Derby has featured more Leger favourites (eight) than winners (five) so far this century, while in the same time frame all but two St Leger winners had contested either the Gordon Stakes or the Great Voltigeur on their previous start.

Snow Sky ran in both the Gordon and the Voltigeur and, after winning the first, managed to raise his profile at York even though he lost. In coming well clear with Postponed, an even later bloomer who isn't going to run in the St Leger, Snow Sky took his Timeform Master Rating to 121 (1 lb off the five-year average for a Leger winner) and gave a good deal of context to his Gordon Stakes win.

That context is crucial where our recommended bet in the Leger is concerned. Between Goodwood and York, Gordon Stakes runner-up Windshear was arguably unlucky not to win a Group 3. Since the Voltigeur he's been arguably unlucky not to beat a legitimate Leger candidate, and the simplest logical step from there leads us to the view that he, too, is a genuine contender.

More than just about any of the other leading candidates, Windshear is bred for the Leger. He's by Hurricane Run, who is noted for stamina even among Coolmore's roster of Flat sires, while his dam's only previous foal won over two miles. He's taken the slow route to this level, though he's been keeping good company all the while: he's never been out of the first two and has been beaten by the likes of Cloudscape (in a handicap off 85) and Elite Army (ran off 94) as well as Snow Sky.

Windshear's pedigree, evident suitability to most ground conditions and profile of consistent development make him a sound ante-post prospect, though none of it matters if he isn't good enough and the Gordon is easily the strongest piece of evidence that he might be. To finish in the manner he did that day, having been forced to switch more than once against a horse that we know to be very smart is a persuasive argument. Doncaster tends to run much more smoothly than the rapids of Goodwood, so the chance of a clear run in the Leger is much greater.

Triple Crown lore might suggest that classics are about class, but it's only part of the story: the Guineas also requires speed and precocity; the Derby balance and maturity; the St Leger needs stamina. It's for that reason that Derby runners provide more favourites than winners in the Leger and why Kingston Hill represents ordinary value at Doncaster compared with the stoutly-bred Windshear in particular. With Windshear's only unanswered question being a final trickle of class, and with double-figure prices being available, an each-way play is no cop out in the season's final classic.

Recommended Bet:
Back Windshear win and place in the St Leger