Scottish National Preview: Use divine judgement to leave nothing to chance

If you want a demonstration of the difference between something that is unpredictable and a lottery, try comparing the Grand National with its Scottish counterpart.

The Grand National is unpredictable; it isn't a lottery. An unpredictable race is one where Tidal Bay can be wiped out, run loose for a mile and then all but carry the leader off the course. A lottery is a race that Twirling Magnet could have won just as easily as Pineau de Re.

Now look at the Scottish National. In relative terms it's predictable (the justification for which is to follow), but few winners of the "lottery" Grand National- perhaps not even Foinavon- have made as little logical sense as Iris de Balme.

The Ayr race's relative predictability comes from its conventionality. At Aintree, the bends are dealt with either very gradually or very sharply. This dulls the effect of steering a wide course, as Richard Johnson ably demonstrated on Balthazar King on Saturday. This isn't an option at Ayr, which turns its fields 180 degrees over the space of a couple of furlongs.

So here's the Catch-22 of the Scottish National: on a hold-up horse in a big field, you probably want to go wide; yet to go wide around as many as five arching turns is going to severely compromise your horse's chance.

The solution? Race handily. And here comes the predictability in the Scottish National: so far this decade, only Always Right has come from off the pace to be truly competitive. Prominent racers have the advantage.

This brings us to Godsmejudge, who upheld the theory when winning the race last year. He was typically ridden close to the pace, looking uncomplicated and willing as he stretched to a four-length win.

This season hasn't gone quite to plan. Godsmejudge has shaped as though amiss on his last two starts (in line with his yard as a whole the first time) and was felt not quite ready to take his chance in the Grand National. Instead he's back at Ayr, now just 6 lb higher than 12 months ago. He's also 3 lb lower than when shaping best at Cheltenham in November, his enthusiastic style just doing for him as he tied up late on in a race won by recent National fourth Alvarado.

Much like in the Aintree version, previous winners have a good record in the Scottish National, unsurprising given the specific demands it makes of a steeplechaser. Repeat winners aren't as elusive at Ayr as in Liverpool, though: since Red Rum became the last horse to win back-to-back Nationals in 1974, three horses have won multiple Scottish Nationals. At prices around 20/1, Godsmejudge is good value to become the fourth.

The theory is far simpler where our backup selection is concerned. There's nothing special about the Scottish National here: we just have a well-handicapped horse, who is probably at his best away from mid-winter ground and looks ready for this sort of a stamina test.

Watch Roberto Goldback's effort in the Kim Muir and you'll see much of the case for him. He was firmly in contention that day before hitting the sixteenth, which so happened to be right before the leaders were sent on down the hill. Now 12, Roberto Goldback couldn't tack onto them after his mistake, though he stayed on stoutly to take third on the run-in. You feel that, without the untimely error, he'd have been a good deal closer.

We know Roberto Goldback is well-handicapped, too. Through little fault of his own (unsuitable conditions), he has slipped 9 lb since he ran at Ascot in November, while those around him like Houblon des Obeaux, Merry King and Triolo d'Alene have all gone on to better things. Now it's Roberto Goldback's time of year and this looks the right race for him in which to belatedly come good this season.

There is time to mention a few more, though it gets a little more complicated from here. Much will depend on whether Tidal Bay, 19 lb ahead of anything else on BHA ratings, takes his chance. Roalco des Farges, for one, would be 5 lb out of the handicap were Tidal Bay to run.

Roalco des Farges has come good of late, much like his yard and likely rider. Both he and Richard Johnson were clinical in victory at Newbury last time. You suspect that Roalco des Farges will go either here or to Sandown for the bet365 Gold Cup (in which he finished second last year) in a couple of weeks. It wouldn't be a surprise if they chose simply on the basis of avoiding Tidal Bay.

A word also for Green Flag who had been pencilled in for this race by some- including myself- for this race no sooner than he'd crossed the line at Cheltenham. He was an outpaced fourth behind Holywell, Ma Filleule and The Package there; strong form indeed. Evidently at home on proper spring ground and bound to stay as far as he's asked, Green Flag is an ideal Scottish National type. It's just a shame that everyone else seems to think so, too.

A final mention goes to Yes Tom. If you were to take his debut success for Stuart Crawford at face value he would have an outstanding chance. There are concerns over the current form of the smart rivals he demolished at Down Royal that day, yet even so visual impressions suggest he is an improved horse, one that could do some damage from a BHA mark of 140.

If it's going to be said that the Scottish National is predictable, whatever the context, then we can't go recommending four bets. Godsmejudge is the appointed chief hope, though concerns over his well-being make him an all-or-nothing choice. For each-way purposes there's a bit more to play with in the case of Roberto Goldback, who could well be on the premises with a repeat of his Cheltenham effort. Let's just hope there isn't another Iris de Balme lurking in this year's field.

Recommendations:
Back Godsmejudge to win & Roberto Goldback each-way in the Scottish National