Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016: O'Brien holds the key to a Heavenly bet

This weekend was chock-full of high-class racing, especially over 1m2f and beyond, but as regards clues to identifying this year's Arc winner it posed more questions than answers.

That phrase is normally a cue to stop reading and go and do something else, but bear with me...

Postponed a rock-solid Arc favourite

In the absence of a stand-out performance - well, one that looks set to involve a trip to Chantilly, rather than Ascot, anyway - Postponed predictably firmed up a touch in the Arc betting for which he current trades at 5.04/1 on the exchange.

He was briefly replaced at the top of the market by Almanzor by a couple of bookmakers yesterday - and they still make that pair joint-favourites this morning - but if trainer Jean Claude-Rouget has anything to do with it then the impressive Irish Champion Stakes winner will be staying at 1m2f.

So while Almanzor is as short as 7-2 in a place for the Arc, it is little wonder that he is 11.010/1 on the exchange.

Rouget clearly believes he is a 1m2f horse and that belief is no doubt strengthened by his having the second-favourite for the race in the shape of the unbeaten French Oaks winner Le Cressonniere, available at 7.613/2

Crucially, she is owned by one of the partnership who is responsible for Almanzor, which looks like making Rouget's preferred route to Ascot easier for him to navigate on the diplomacy front. Both horses are unproven at 1m4f, though.

Postponed certainly isn't, and he simply looks bomb-proof - fitness-permitting, come the day - and a very worthy favourite at around the 4-1 mark, but where are the shorteners?

Very few really put their hand up on the weekend, and arguably the most solid of the rest is the horse beaten by Almanzor at Leopardstown. Found is available at 16.015/1 on the exchange and that is on the big side, not least because we know that she is going for the race.

Yes, I know the fact that she has finished second in her last five Groups 1s will deter some - as will the knowledge that a lively outsider in Fascinating Rock and Postponed have already put her to bed in dismissive fashion this season - but this is a filly who comes alive in the autumn and she has been getting better as the year has developed. Saturday's run was almost certainly a career-best, too.

She ensured a nightmare passage when ninth in the race last year, so I'd ignore that run, and she has won a Group 1 in October in both of her previous seasons, notably when beating Golden Horn in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Little wonder she is only 10-1 with the Betfair Sportsbook, as she looks a very fair each-way shout.

Seventh Heaven the value in O'Brien's confusing Arc picture

Aidan O'Brien's running plans for this race could be key, though.

That may seem strange to say given that he doesn't appear to have a stand-out contender this season - even though US Army Ranger ran with promise at the weekend he is clearly some way off the top level on the evidence of his two comeback runs since the Derby, and Order Of St George looked very awkward when lugging to his right in the final furlong as a beaten 1-7 favourite in the Irish St Leger - but if Seventh Heaven was confirmed as on target for Chantilly she'd be third or fourth favourite, and not a 30.029/1 chance.

She was ridiculously impressive when beating Found in the Yorkshire Oaks - albeit the runner-up was returning from a two-month break and was widely reported to need the run - and she is a filly fast on the up.

The problem is will she run? I expected her to take up her engagement in the Vermeille on Sunday and get a sighter of the course and distance - she would have dotted up there in a weak renewal - so the fact that she didn't is slightly off-putting.

However, if there is a big shortener in the Arc market, then it is undoubtedly her, for all connections apparently insist that she needs good ground or better.

She certainly appeals as a considerably more likely winner, indeed runner, than Minding. The Guineas-Oaks winner met some significant early trouble in the Irish Champion and did well to finish third, and she is surely best at that distance or back in trip, though Alice Springs looks their top dog (bitch sounded wrong when I wrote it) at a mile after her wildly impressive "ooh, Matron" win.

And what will Aidan do with Idaho after Saturday? The Arc, for which he is 36.035/1, may not be a bad option for him if he has come out of the Doncaster race okay. A 1m4f Group 1 prize must be the aim for that colt now. And we haven't even mentioned the stable's King George winner Highland Reel, though he may be off on his travels now.

New Bay ran well when fourth in the Irish Champion and obviously won the French Derby at Chantilly, but he is another horse for whom running plans seem up in the air, as they are with Midterm, who is the same Juddmonte ownership.

Makahiki a genuine Arc contender, according to Ryan Moore

Midterm ran a great race on his comeback from a fractured pelvis when just collared by Makahiki in the Niel on Sunday, but the Arc is probably too soon for a colt who has had problems and just the four starts.

Betfair Sportsbook pushed the Japanese Derby winner Makahiki out to 10-1 after his Niel win, which may have been a bit too hasty.

The substance of the form is questionable but he did pretty well to get up close home from well off the pace, and if you believe his connections he was only "70-80 per cent" fit. All narrow winners at heavy odds-on do tend to be, though.

Make of the fitness comments what you will, but there is clearly a lot of guesswork surrounding his ability and I think his "sexy unknown" profile is the reason why he is considerably shorter in some places, and a laughably tight 5-1 with one layer.

To be honest, I don't have a strong opinion on the horse, though Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore, who knows a fair bit about Japanese racing, rates him as a serious Arc contender.

The other weekend Chantilly trial winners, Foy scorer Silverwave and Vermeille victor Left Hand, won't be giving Roger Varian sleepless nights, as 33-1 quotes for the pair indicate, as a touch overly-dismissive as they may be.

The big loser in the Arc betting from the weekend is Harzand, who was struck into and returned lame from the Irish Champion Stakes, and must now be considered a doubt. He is out to 14.527/2 on the exchange, predictably enough.

He was always out of his comfort zone against pacier rivals at Leopardstown, and if Dermot Weld can get him in A1 condition on October 2, it would be unwise to forget just how good a horse he looked at Epsom and the Curragh.

My conclusion...

So, after the opening "questions and answers" line, it won't be any surprise to inform you that this piece does indeed lack a punchy conclusion and strong recommendations.

For what it is worth I think the O'Brien fillies Found and Seventh Heaven are the most enticing bets at the moment in a muddled market, and the latter is particularly interesting.

Watch out for updates and running plans for her - and Chantilly going updates, too, nearer the day given connections apparently want to avoid the soft ground on which she disappointed at Epsom - before betting, though.