Portland Preview: Just what the Doc ordered

The idiom "too good to be true" has had a devastating effect upon how people assess things, whether it is the offer of a "free" fitted kitchen or a hugely discounted holiday. In many circumstances you are right to question something that sounds like an outrageously good deal but when it comes to assessing horse races, a standout selection can be overlooked because it has too obvious a chance. 

This logic is bizarre and it seems that the more clear-cut a horse's chance, the more we seek reasons as to why it could be beaten. Backing a "value loser" may be a moral victory and fill you with some sense of pride but it won't fill your wallet in the same way that crashing an 11/8 shot will. 

There are no 11/8 shots in the 2013 renewal of the Portland Handicap, and the horse that looks a standout bet to me isn't even the favourite, but it could pay to keep it simple and side with last year's victor, namely Doc Hay.

Now Doc Hay's form figures are pretty uninspiring, I'll admit that, but what did connections expect when trying him in the Palace House, the Temple Stakes and the Kings Stand Stakes? He didn't fire in any of those races but he was out of his depth, which offers excuse enough, and his build up to the defence of his Portland crown should be noted.

In June of last year Doc Hay ran poorly in a Nottingham handicap and was then given a 12-week break prior to catching the eye at Haydock, a race which came a week before the Portland. This time around, Doc Hay was given a break after Royal Ascot, again June, and came back with a similarly eye-catching effort in the Beverley Bullet late last month, a race which comes two weeks before the Portland. You don't need to be Hercule Poirot to figure out what was on connections' minds. 

If you missed the Beverley Bullet I implore you to go and watch the replay, as Doc Hay made up a substantial amount of ground mid-race, having found himself a long way back, and he understandably couldn't sustain that sort of effort through to the finish. It was a considerably more promising effort than he had previously posted this season and one that suggested he was well up to landing one of these big autumn handicaps.
 
With Doc Hay such an obvious candidate, then, is there much point in discussing the dangers? Well yes, there probably is actually as they are plentiful, though can in some ways be grouped together. Those in support of Jamaican Bolt and Harrison George will be praying for the heavens to open but, having checked the long-range forecast, I can tell you that the news is not good. No rain on the radar.

That factor seems more key to Jamaican Bolt, who has been pulled out on numerous occasions this season because of quick ground, than it does to Harrison George, but his wins have all come at six furlongs or further and he seems to need ease in the ground at this sort of trip to get involved at the finish.

Fans of Barnet Fair can take solace in the forecast as he likes quick ground, the firmer the better. He ran creditable when fifth at York last time, shaping slightly better than the bare result as is his wont, but he probably needs to produce another career-best to defy this kind of mark.  

Whilst on the subject of handicap marks we need to discuss Bogart and Ahtoug, who appear to have decent chances on paper. Both have gone up 5 lb for their latest wins and, whilst the first mentioned may be capable of slightly further improvement given that he is still fairly lightly raced in handicaps, he will need to pull out more to defy this mark and I'm not sure how much more Ahtoug has to offer, particularly as he had plenty of chances off his old mark prior to scoring on Shergar Cup day at Ascot. 

We have questions about all of the principals, some with concerns over ground and some with concerns over their ability to win off their marks, aside from Doc Hay, who acts on any going and is just 3 lb higher than when winning this year. Poirot I'm not, but this was a pretty simple puzzle to solve. 

Recommendation:
Back Doc Hay @ 17.016/1 in the Portland Handicap

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