Lockinge Stakes Preview: Don't ignore the obvious

If you remember the run-up to last year's Lockinge Stakes, all the hype was around one horse: Declaration of War. Although he'd won four of his five starts to date, including a Grade 3 at the Curragh, he was still very much an unknown quantity and despite being backed all week as if defeat was out of the question, he went on to finish a disappointing fifth. The faith of that mysterious, all-powerful Coolmore cabal known only to the racing public as 'the lads' was duly rewarded when he went on to win the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Juddmonte International later in the season, but when the money was down in May, he failed to deliver.

This seems particularly relevant as lying second in the market for this year's renewal is new Ballydoyle recruit Verrazano. You often see O'Brien runners who have pedigrees to die for and some lofty future entries (he's currently engaged for the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Queen Anne and Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot as well as the Coral Eclipse) in these European Group 1s and if you're looking for the horse who could possess the 'X' factor then Verrazano is undoubtedly it. He looked to be the top three-year-old colt in America after his win in the Haskell Invitational Stakes last year and they wouldn't start him in Group 1 company unless they were pretty confident in his ability.

However, given he's never raced on turf before and he struggled when conditions were gruelling in the Kentucky Derby and the Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct, he's far too much of a risk for Saturday's contest, which looks likely to be run on good to soft going at the very least. If you also factor in he's currently priced at around 7.413/2 (the almighty plunge of Declaration of War was clearly in the minds of the odds-compilers when they were assessing this year's race) he makes no appeal whatsoever.

I've been known to latch on to these mysterious, exciting Coolmore blue-bloods on more than one occasion, but experience is going to get the better of me on this occasion and for me the most likely winner of Saturday's race looks to be Olympic Glory. Despite being a Group 1 winner in both his juvenile and classic seasons, and finishing a close second to the outstanding Moonlight Cloud at Deauville last summer, it's fair to say the son of Choisir has raced in the shadow of stablemate Toronado for most of his career to date.

That all changed on Champions Day at Ascot last year, when the combination of soft ground and first time blinkers brought about a top-class performance in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, trouncing a top class field by three-and-a-quarter lengths and proving himself to be every bit as effective as his stablemate at the highest level. He went on to disappoint at the Breeders' Cup but he had never appealed as the type of horse who would be suited by the demands of Santa Anita and back on turf at Newbury on Saturday, where he looks like he'll get a bit of cut in the ground, he should prove very tough to beat.

He has no problems when fresh as he showed when winning the Greenham over C&D on his reappearance last season and providing he retains the ability he showed last season as a four year-old, even a reproduction of the level of form he showed at Ascot in October would be enough to see him run out a comfortable winner, and with the all-important blinkers likely to be re-fitted he's a confident selection to do just that.

There are others in the race worth considering however, most pressingly the supplemented German contender Chopin. He was something of an in-between horse last season, shaping well in the Derby despite not seeing out the trip and paying the price for those exertions in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he shaped well on his seasonal reappearance at Dusseldorf over an extended mile and he's attracted some support following the announcement that he'd run.He's won on soft ground and if he were to get a truly run race in soft underfoot conditions the emphasis on stamina might well play into his hands; it would be no surprise to see him getting involved at the finish, for all that Olympic Glory looks to be the classier animal.

Tullius has earned a crack at this level after a fine second in the Lincoln, the form of which is working out particularly well this year, and a comfortable win in the Bet365 Mile at Sandown last time. He was well backed on that occasion and is another who won't mind a bit of cut in the ground and you can't deny he's thriving at present and looks capable of running a big race. The worry with him is whether he has enough class to overturn the favourite, and on all known form it would be a huge step up for him to do so; although he's respected, it would be a big surprise if he won.

Mike de Kock's Soft Falling Rain is another who looks set to take his chance after a good season in Meydan, finishing second when defending his crown in the Godolphin Mile and proving himself a performer who can be  genuinely competitive at the highest level. The main worry with him is that the concern expressed by connections in the run up to Champions Day last October about his ability to handle soft ground turned out to be valid, as he beat only one home on that occasion. With others who are far more likely to handle conditions on Saturday at odds of 11.010/1 he looks one to watch out for when he encounters a better racing surface.

Last but by no means least is the highly consistent Montiridge, whose only failed to make the frame once in eleven starts and shaped well on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown last time. He was delicately handled once it was clear he wasn't going to land a blow on Tullius, is versatile in terms of ground and you can be sure he'll give his running. The worry again is whether he's good enough to win a Grade 1, especially with such an illustrious stablemate in the line-up and you feel he may have to settle for place money once again, for all that he is capable of landing a big prize somewhere else this season. 

So there you have it; if you were looking for an unwavering vote of support for the unexposed, potentially electrifying American import Verrazano you may well be disappointed, and in truth I was a little disappointed in myself when I realised how balanced and sensible my conclusion was. However, what matters most is who crosses the line first at Newbury on Saturday, and whether a little too sensible or not, the most likely horse to fill that position is Olympic Glory. 

Recommendation:

Back Olympic Glory in the Lockinge Stakes