"Emma Lavelle hasn't had the best of seasons so far but there is a sneaking suspicion that her luck, and that of her stable, may be about to change with Captain Sunshine..."
Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an early look at the Lanzarote Hurdle, a listed handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs at Kempton on Saturday...
Clearly the Lanzarote Hurdle is named after Lanzarote, the 1974 Champion Hurdler who also triumphed in Kempton's Christmas Hurdle on two occasions, but having visited the Canarian island of the same name a total of six times I feel much more qualified to discuss that than a horse that took to the track long before my time.
Holidaymakers are somewhat split between those that like to go to a different location at every opportunity, seeing as much as possible, and those that think they would like to go to a different location, briefly scanning the travel agents window before heading back to where they went last year. I reckon that I traverse the two categories, going somewhere new every now and again but making sure that I get a fairly regular dosage of Lanzarote sun.
The case for returning to the same resort, hotel or villa is a compelling one as there is no need to allow any time to "settle in" or to "get your bearings", you can rock up at your temporary home and immediately commence upon eating and drinking yourself into oblivion for the duration. As I said, compelling.
"Compelling" is a word often bandied about in horse racing circles, with aficionados earning bonus points among their posse when a horse that they said a "compelling case" could be made for wins, but the problem incurred when looking at a race like the Lanzarote Hurdle is that were you to back every one that compelled you it is quite conceivable that you could end up with tickets for 16 of the 20 runners in your back pocket. We must therefore ignore certain urges and hone in on the one we really want to carry our cash.
Black Thunder will most likely be the starting point for many, with the six-year-old hailing from the all-conquering stable of Paul Nicholls. Indeed he has improved with each and every run to date and looks open to further progress still but there is a definite question mark next to his name, mainly brought about by his effort over C&D on seasonal debut in November.
Up until that point Black Thunder had not been tried over further than two miles and three furlongs and his finishing effort that day suggested that he barely stayed the extra two furlongs, weakening after the final flight and looking as though the emphasis on stamina was far from ideal. Admittedly he went some way to dispelling that notion on his next start at Haydock, over a furlong shorter, as he stayed on in taking style, but that was in a race run at a steady pace in which he was giving an overly-patient ride. In a race of this ilk, where a strong pace is possible, we don't want to have any doubts about the one we've ploughed into so Black Thunder can be ticked off the list.
With trainer Nick Williams having won the last two renewals of this contest, with James de Vassey and Swincombe Flame, it would be folly to dismiss his representative Un Bon P'tit Gars, who is arguably the most unexposed participant in the field having taken to the track just three times. The five-year-old has already achieved a fairly useful level of form, looking a very good prospect when beating Moscow Presents at Uttoxeter in a novices' hurdle in October, and he is worthy of his place in this company but it is more than possible that he may find this competitive scenario all too much at this stage of his career.
With the likes of the battle-hardened Bourne and Brampour in opposition it is difficult to nail your colours to the mast of one so inexperienced and, for now at least, it could pay to look elsewhere.
Lamb Or Cod would make plenty of appeal were it not for his trainer, Philip Hobbs, suggesting that the six-year-old was suffering from a breathing problem when running below form at Haydock on his latest start. As has been well documented by the same stable's Wishfull Thinking, horses with breathing difficulties can often be hard to predict which makes it tough to place our faith in him.
The Nicky Henderson-trained Bear's Affair could well turn out to be the best horse in this field, with the manner of his Aintree success in December sticking out like a pasty Brit in speedos lounging on a Canarian beach, but a 12 lb rise in the weights incurred for that win will make life marginally more difficult for the current market leader, which leads me to be inclined to look away from the head of the exchange.
Emma Lavelle hasn't had the best of seasons so far but there is a sneaking suspicion that her luck, and that of her stable, may be about to change with Captain Sunshine fancied to land the spoils in the Lanzarote. The seven-year-old progressed throughout most of last season, winning novices' events at both Kempton and Cheltenham, with the latter mentioned win, in a useful race, representing his best effort to date and leaving the promise of more to come. Although he is yet to deliver this season it is possible to make excuses for her performances, likely to have been in need of his reappearance before blotting his copybook slightly when refusing to race at Exeter.
It is not completely clear cut as to what happened that day as Captain Sunshine didn't plant himself, initially he looked to have taken an extra turn at the crucial moment just as the field were preparing to depart. It would be difficult to recommend him on the back of that but we can rest assured in the fact that he has since consented to race at Cheltenham, where he shaped better than the bare result in a well-contested handicap, and it is worth remembering that Saturday will denote just his fourth start in handicap company.
Having found the strength not to back all of the above horses, despite many of them making appeal, we have honed in on Captain Sunshine as the one we want to side with on Saturday. Bear's Affair is most likely the best long-term prospect in the field and Black Thunder would probably win were this race staged over three furlongs shorter but the present is what matters and Captain Sunshine can bring it home, potentially teeing up my seventh visit to the Canaries. We can but hope.
Recommendation:
Back Captain Sunshine @ 23.022/1 in the Lanzarote Hurdle
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