Tony Calvin: Some early Cheltenham thoughts and a tip for the weekend

I tweeted a couple of weeks ago about what a race next month's Timico Gold Cup would be if all of the big guns had managed to get there - at that point we had already, sadly, lost Vautour and Many Clouds, as well as injuries to the likes of previous winners of the race, Coneygree and Don Cossack, and potential top-notchers Killultagh Vic and Valseur Lido - and then yesterday Thistlecrack was ruled out of the race.

The lads and lasses at the Betfair Sportsbook clearly feel they can get more favourites beat - they go top price about the market leaders Native River and Saturday's impressive Betfair Ascot Chase winner Cue Card at 3-1 and 7-2 respectively - but the exchange market quickly reformed to a pretty accurate level, so we won't dwell upon that market for now.

Some of the Festival markets on the exchange are currently suspended due to forfeit stages, but the Champion Hurdle isn't and I was a little bit surprised to see Yanworth trading as low as 5.59/2 after what was a pretty unimpressive Kingwell Hurdle win at Wincanton.

I have no problem with acknowledging that he has definite chances in what could be a weak and open year - his unbeaten record over 2m over hurdles is there for all to see, as is the merit of his Neptune second to Yorkhill last season, and a stiff 2m would clearly suit him better - but he surely doesn't jump well enough to win a Champion Hurdle, either in cheek pieces or not.

Perhaps Alan King may try blinkers or a visor - the trainer has a superb record when trying that type of headgear for the first time - but either way I can't get excited by 9/2 win-only quotes.

Hopefully, some of you took notice of this article in December and are sitting on some fair prices on Petit Mouchoir and Brain Power.

I was expecting a better run from Arpege D'Alene at Ascot last weekend but I suspected a trip just shy of 3m was never going to see him to best effect there. And so it proved.

Given the way he jumped out to his left there he actually did quite well to be beaten just over six lengths and I'd be pretty confident that a step up to four miles back at his favoured Cheltenham - a track where he has run his best races, including a second in the Pertemps Final last season - will see him in a much better light. And maybe in a change of headgear, too.

The exchange market is currently suspended but when it re-opens I would look to back him at 17.016/1 or bigger; the National Hunt Chase remains the plan.

King could look a picture in Eider

On to more imminent matters and this weekend's two main ante-post races are Kempton's 3m handicap chase and the Eider Chase at Newcastle.

Let's start with the Newcastle marathon as any idea that I had of tipping Court Frontier evaporated when his price went into freefall on Tuesday. He was a 20-1 chance on Monday, and is now under half that price.

With doubts surrounding the participation of Raz De Maree and Baie Des Iles, I think Shotgun Paddy is rock solid at around the 8/1 mark.

Yes, he can hit a few but he is 7lb lower than when runner-up in this race last season and he has been dropped a generous 2lb for a respectable third at Warwick last time.

The horse I most like at this stage is one who finished ¾ length behind him in this race last season, Portrait King, who actually took this contest in 2012, and trades at 18.017/1.

He comes here as an old-timer as a 12yo now but he ran well over hurdles last time and he was a fair sixth in what was a decent Becher Chase in December, when five pounds wrong at the weights. We know conditions will suit, and stamina is no issue, but I am happy to see what the markets bring on Friday afternoon before tipping.

D'Apsis has roc solid each-way claims

I am happy to get involved in the Betbright Chase at Kempton though, with Roc D'Apsis at 20-1 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook ¼ the odds 1,2,3,4, although it has to be said there are a fair few in here that you can fancy. Odds of 21.020/1 and bigger win-only on the exchange would be very acceptable, too.

Or at least I was until hearing at 1pm on Wednesday that he isn't a certain runner so you may want to hold your bets for now. If you have already punted him, fingers crossed he turns up.

The story with this horse is actually very straightforward. He may be currently 1lb out of the handicap at the moment (and is still likely to be come Saturday) but he actually has very strong claims across the board.

He ran well when second to an improver (albeit one who disappointed last time) after a break at Taunton last month and that was a big step forward from his two previous efforts this season.

He has run a lot of his better efforts here - he has course form figures of 3313 - and one of those was a third to Theatre Guide and Opening Batsman in this race last season.

He is now 5lb lower and is back on the same mark as his last victory, also here over an extended 2m4f in January 2016.

Tom George's stellar season has continued in the last fortnight (he is operating at a 33% strike rate) and you have to assume that this race has been the plan again for a while.

Let's hope so, anyway.

Recommended Bets

Back Roc D'Apsis @ 20-1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook (¼ the odds 1,2,3,4); or @ 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange, in 15:35 at Kempton on Saturday.

***

For all the latest Cheltenham betting tips and previews, check out our dedicated Festival category