July Cup Preview: South Africa's time to shine

The rivalry between Britain and Australia is perhaps the most famous in sport. Once barbed by poorly-disguised colonial resentment, its current, cuddlier image has Oz cast as the uppity younger brother who suddenly became better than you at sport. 

However, big brother is starting to fight back, as the recent Lions tour and the current odds for the nascent Ashes series tell you. Might the reflex be spreading to another division recently dominated by Australians, that of the equine sprinters? Where the likes of Choisir and Scenic Blast once put the home team to shame, the imperious Black Caviar rather fluffed her lines last year and the latest challenger from Down Under, Shamexpress, finished a humdrum ninth in the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Shamexpress is the only Australian-trained runner left in this year's July Cup, but a price around 18.017/1 suggests the days of fearing anything that comes via a win in the Newmarket Handicap are gone. 

With that said, it's hardly the case that Britain is all of a sudden producing top-quality sprinters. Indeed, current favourite for the July Cup is a raider from South Africa, the Mike de Kock-trained Shea Shea. He was ultimately foiled in his bid to land the King's Stand Stakes last month, being worn down in the dying strides by Irish stalwart Sole Power. The bare facts of the form don't tell the whole story, though: Shea Shea looked the best horse in the race by quite some way, winning comfortably on his side of the track and just unable to repel a powerful finish from Sole Power, who he'd beaten convincingly in the Al Quoz Sprint on his previous start.

Stamina is another key element in the decision to make Shea Shea favourite on Saturday. The July Cup is about as testing as it will get for sprinters, being over the stiff six furlongs of the July Course, and the feeling with Sole Power has always been that he's best over five, his finishing rattle at Ascot more a manifestation of his potent turn of foot than a hankering for further. Shea Shea has less to worry about in terms of stamina, being a winner over seven furlongs in his homeland, though admittedly he has looked very speedy on his travels in 2013.

If a 'pom' is to win the July Cup, the betting forecasts that it's likely to be either Lethal Force or Society Rock, first and second respectively in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. Society Rock has become the most reliable British performer in times of foreign domination; his consistency has yielded a couple of Group 1s and numerous other close shaves at this level, including when third in the July Cup last year, but by the same token his limitations are known.

Lethal Force is perhaps more interesting, and probably better value than Society Rock at a similar price, being an up-and-coming four-year-old who has developed into Britain's best sprinter on the evidence of Ascot. He'll need to curb his enthusiasm, however, if he's to blaze a trail in this race and come out of the dip unscathed.

Another pacey, up-and-coming Brit with designs on Group 1 glory is the Kevin Ryan-trained Hamza, who is worth a mention at a bigger price. He doesn't have as much to find with the form principals as his odds suggest, while the form of his handicap win over the Rowley Mile here in May looks solid enough to give him a chance. In the mould of your typical British sportsman, it may end in narrow, glorious failure, but at around 19.018/1 an each-way bet on Hamza could pay.

If you're looking for the winner of the July Cup, the answer may appear disappointingly high in the betting. South Africa's last assault on British sprints might have ended with J J The Jet Place going home essentially empty-handed, but Shea Shea has looked the real deal and is already the moral winner of a Group 1 in this country. At around 5.24/1 to become the actual winner of another, he may just arrest this summer of the British sporting comeback.

Recommendation:

Back Shea Shea in the July Cup

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