John Smith's Cup Betting: Area Fifty One to dominate on the Knavesmire

The Durban July, South Africa's most prestigious race, was run at Greyville last Saturday and won by the Sean Tarry-trained Pomodoro, considered something of a shock victor having been sent off at a massive 28/1. The John Smith's Cup, for a contest of its nature, has had surprisingly few unconsidered horses landing the spoils of late, just one winner being sent off larger than 12/1 in the last eight years, but Pomodoro may still be able to point us in the right direction with regards to York's Saturday feature.

The word Pomodoro is Italian for tomato, a staple ingredient in Italian cuisine. One of the more famous dishes, with tomatoes being an integral component, is Chicken Milanese Pomodoro, consisting of crispy chicken with herbed pasta, mozzarella and, of course, pomodoro sauce. Fear not, this has not turned into GoodFood.com but a rather roundabout connection to the Milanese-born trainer Luca Cumani, who is likely to saddle Danadana and Kirthill at York.

Of that pair, it is Danadana who currently holds sway in the market, albeit marginally, with the four-year old trading at 12.011/1 whilst Kirthill is available at 14.013/1. Danadana has improved markedly this season, looking in need of his reappearance at Newmarket before landing a really well-contested handicap back at that same track, winning with a bit in hand. He went on to notch a further victory in Redcar's Zetland Gold Cup, another good-quality handicap, confirming the opinion that he is going the right way and is a handicapper to keep on side.

Unfortunately, Cumani has stated that Danadana would be an unlikely runner were rain to befall York and, with my nearby back garden presently resembling a swimming pool rather than a strip of turf and weeds, Danadana's prospects of lining-up on Saturday look about as bleak as the Summer of 2012.

So, what are Cumani's chances of celebrating success with Kirthill? The four-year-old ended 2011 on the up, winning at Newbury, and has returned this season with a decent enough effort over C&D before putting up a career-best last time when sixth to Gatewood at Royal Ascot. He will probably be seen to greater effect when stepped up to a mile and a half and, in all likelihood, the wine will be remaining in the cellar on Saturday evening at Bedford House Stables.

The Roger Varian-trained Mijhaar is currently trading as the favourite, and it is expected that he will occupy that position on race day. Mijhaar has been threatening to a good race for a while, and came closest to doing just that on his most recent start when third to Gatewood in the aforementioned contest. He cannot be attributed with doing anything wrong when off the bridle, but he has traded at 2.26/5 or lower in-running, and failed to deliver, on his last four starts, a worrying trait, and at the current price of 4.84/1 he does not make much appeal as a value bet.

One who makes plenty of appeal is Media Hype, a winner of a big-field handicap over C&D in May. Prior to that effort, Media Hype had finished runner-up to The Galloping Shoe at Haydock, having no less than four next-time-out winners (including Old Newton Cup winner Number Theory) in behind. He was the subject of market support on his most recent start at Newmarket, shaping as if still in form but not being seen to best effect in a race where it was difficult to make up from the rear. Media Hype is very lightly-raced for a five-year-old and remains with potential to improve.

Media Hype's Newmarket conqueror, Area Fifty One, will re-oppose on Saturday and has to be respected given his two most recent starts, when second to Navajo Chief and landing that Newmarket affair. His York effort, at the time, represented a career-best but Area Fifty One would improve upon that when defeating his Newmarket rivals by four lengths. Arguably, the four-year-old was suited by the way the race developed having raced close to the pretty sound pace, but conversely it is possible that Area Fifty One is simply a handicapper to take seriously. He has to shoulder a penalty for that success, but he may well be up to doing so.

There are a plethora of competitors that it is easy to make a case for among the rest of the field, but a pair that require some attention are the aforementioned Navajo Chief and Alkimos. The former's defeat of Area Fifty One represented one of his better efforts, and he is yet to run badly in five starts at this venue. The gelding has to enter calculations, but whether he can defy a career-high mark is up for debate.

Alkimos, formerly trained by Luca Cumani but has represented Godolphin on his last four starts, achieved a career-best when encountering soft ground in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot last season. He got back to that form on his latest start, when fourth to Camborne on just his second try at a mile and a half, looking to be well-suited by the demands of that distance. Soft ground will help dropping down two furlongs this weekend, but he would make far more appeal were this staged over further.

An intriguing contest is very much on the cards, the spectacle of a big-field handicap further adding to the show. Media Hype makes plenty of appeal but it is Area Fifty One that just gets the nod in his bid to confirm superiority over that rival, his Newmarket win being rather impressive. The possibility of the chaps who work at Area 51, the highly-secretive US military base in Nevada, cracking open a few bottles of Italian Red and indulging in a tomato-based supper in celebration of their namesake's triumph are fairly remote, as are the chances of them even being aware of the John Smith's Cup's existence, but there is every chance that Area Fifty One can land the spoils on the Knavesmire.

Recommendation
Back Area Fifty One @ 9.517/2 in the John Smith's Cup