Irish Oaks Preview: 5-timer on the cards for Curvy

Unlike the Irish Derby, the Irish Oaks has had more of a 'winnable' feel to it for racing trainers who are not Aidan O'Brien over recent years. O'Brien's dominance in the Irish Derby is astounding, with Jack Hobbs' victory last month only the sixth occasion this century that the race has not fallen into his hands.

O'Brien's record in the Irish Oaks is still nothing to be sniffed at, but comparatively his four successes don't represent a dominance on the scale of, say, the Irish 2000 Guineas (10 wins) or Phoenix Stakes (a scarcely believable 13). O'Brien currently still has seven fillies entered in the Oaks at the six-day declaration stage, but somewhat surprisingly this doesn't include Pretty Polly winner Diamondsandrubies, who was favourite on most ante-post lists before Tuesday afternoon.

O'Brien's remaining squad is still full of quality, however, provided not least by Epsom's Oaks winner Qualify, who sets a reasonable standard as she bids to become the first horse since Snow fairy in 2010 to do the Anglo/Irish Oaks double. Despite her SP of 50/1, there was no fluke about Qualify's victory at Epsom where she collared 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo in the final strides. It's expected that she'll fare better here than in the Irish Derby, where her exaggerated waiting tactics were no good at all, but even so there's a strong chance that we have already seen her to maximum effect.

O'Brien's more fancied runner, Words, has a completely contrasting profile to the highly-tried Qualify, having had just the two career starts. Her form is hardly lacking, though: she overcame the run of the race on debut to beat subsequent Group 2 winner Raydara as well as Qualify.

Stepped up to 12 furlongs for her first start this season in a Group 3 at Cork, Words outbattled a smart, more seasoned Dermot Weld filly, and though this form falls some way short of leading contenders in this race, she remains a most exciting prospect. As a kicker, to say Words has the pedigree for this race would be something of an understatement as her dam Moonstone won this very race in 2008 after finishing second at Epsom.

Another filly on the upgrade is David Wachman's Curvy, supplemented at a cost of €40,000 after upsetting Irish 1000 Guineas winner Pleascach in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Curvy relished the step up to a 12 furlongs at Ascot, and despite Ryan Moore having to engineer her a path that caused a barging match with other horses she was full value for the win on the day, and in drawing clear of the field with a proven Group 1 filly put up a performance on par with Qualify's Oaks victory. Bracelet took the Ribblesdale en route to Irish Oaks victory last season, and Curvy has every chance of following up this year.

Of the handful of British fillies set to make the trip to the Curragh John Gosden's Gretchen may be the most exciting. Gretchen was fifth in the Ribblesdale behind Curvy and though she has several lengths to find with the favourite here, there were many positives to be gleaned from just her second racecourse start, where she ran on well despite showing signs of greenness and being forced widest of all around the bend. There is more to come from Gretchen, and, although she may be up against it trying to find upwards of five lengths with such a progressive type as Curvy, she has more scope for improvement than that of listed winner Covert Love and Ribblesdale sixth Forte, who make up the British challenge along with the lightly-raced Speedy Boarding.

The Oaks is one of the big Irish races where the British have a fairly good record, which is probably due in no small part to Aidan O'Brien's slightly looser grip on the race. The Oaks looks set to stay on home soil this year however, and it is David Wachman's Curvy who is narrowly preferred to the O'Brien pair of Words and Qualify.

Recommendation:
Back Curvy to win the Irish Oaks