Hungerford Stakes Preview: Caspar the punters' friend?

The sprinter versus the stayer, a match race staged over an intermediate distance pitting together the best two individuals of their respective disciplines to establish conclusively who is superior. In theory at least.

A prospective duel between Usain Bolt and Mo Farah, kings of the athletics scene, over 600 meters has been well documented in recent weeks and, incredibly, there actually appears to be a chance that it could happen. Who would emerge triumphant? In my mind there is no doubt, Bolt would simply cruise around in Farah's slipstream before delivering a devastating burst of acceleration down the home straight which would leave Farah trailing. 

A similar scenario reared its head last year with Frankel and Black Caviar. One suspects that particular situation was borne more out of the rivalry between England and Australia, and the general public of each refusing to acknowledge their adversaries achievements, rather than a heartfelt desire to gamble the reputation of their champion.

We regularly see match ups of this kind on the race track but in a much more conventional sense, with races over seven furlongs often bringing together sprinters and milers. Which a particular race favours is often track dependant, with some courses favouring speed over stamina and vice versa, though there are a small bunch of "seven furlong specialists" operating in racing.

Quality races over this distance are few and far between, which arguably goes some way to explaining why such horses have plenty of defeats next to their name as they frequently go either up or down in trip. Libranno, Red Jazz and Pastoral Player are just a few among the potential line-up for Saturday's Hungerford Stakes that you could count as being members of the aforementioned club, though we may have seen a new recruit emerge in the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

Garswood is his name, and he improved to notch his first pattern race win as he swooped from last to first under Ryan Moore. Admittedly the three-year-old had plenty in his favour that day, enjoying the underfoot conditions and an uninterrupted run down the outside of the field, but it was an impressive performance nonetheless. 

This looks an ideal assignment for Garswood but connections have stated that the Prix de la Foret, run at Longchamp on Arc day, is the colt's main target for this season and it has also been suggested that Garswood will make up into an even better performer next year, with that notion being backed up by his rather taking physique. With those slight caveats in mind we may be best to look elsewhere at this stage, or at least until it is confirmed that he is an intended starter. 

Just behind Garswood in the Lennox Stakes was Caspar Netscher, who was making his return to racing having suffered from fertility issues at stud. The four-year-old- a Mill Reef, Greenham and German 2000 Guineas winner in his pomp- showed that his mind was fully on the job, and not in some far and distant field where the lady horses live, as he shaped really encouragingly on debut for new trainer David Simcock, not only leaving the impression that he is as good as ever but, if anything, promising to be even better this time around. 

Caspar Netscher is a tough and game sort who seems to be unaffected by the prevalent ground conditions, all factors which make him a rather attractive ante-post play, but we would be foolish to stop here without assessing the chances of two lightly-raced potential opponents, starting with Soft Falling Rain.

Mike de Kock's charge, unbeaten in seven outings including a Grade 1 in his native South Africa, the UAE 2000 Guineas and the Group 2 Godolphin Mile, will be making his UK debut for a yard accustomed to success across the globe. The suspicion prior to Soft Falling Rain's performance in the Godolphin Mile was that he was viewed by connections as being more of a sprinter but it was stamina that enabled him to overcome adversity that day, racing freely out wide and being poorly positioned virtually throughout prior to finding plenty at the finish to snatch victory. 

Soft Falling Rain is a progressive performer who is clearly open to further improvement, which is why he retains the Timeform 'p' on his rating. It is his rating that is of interest to us now as he heads the weight-adjusted figures based upon his achievements to date, so he is an exciting prospect with the promise of more to come. 

The only other horse in the possible line up to have the 'p' is Ballydoyle's Darwin, formerly trained by Todd Pletcher in the USA but now in the care of the masterful Aidan O'Brien. It's easy to see why the three-year-old fetched $1.3 million at the sales as a juvenile as he is a strapping individual that has really taken the eye on his two starts in Ireland, winning at Naas prior to landing a Group 3 at the Curragh last month, beating Gordon Lord Byron with plenty to spare. 

It's an intriguing comparison between Soft Falling Rain and Darwin, both lightly-raced improvers that will be having their first starts in this country. The former has proven he is capable at this level, and could go higher still, whilst it would be a shock were Darwin to fail for ability now pitched in at the deep end, so which one do we side with? 

In truth I'm struggling to pitch myself in either camp. One thing I do know is that I can't let Caspar Netscher go unbacked, as his best form puts him in with a real chance here and, as mentioned earlier, he could yet pull out a bit more for his new connections. He's the ante-post bet then, but it is certainly advisable to get at least one of the likely improvers on side come race day.

Recommendation:
Back Caspar Netscher in the Hungerford Stakes

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