Grand National Trial: Let's Judge whether he can make an impact at Aintree

Two years ago I previewed Haydock's Grand National Trial and began with the following paragraph: "Despite its billing, a quick look back at the last 10 runnings of the race show it to be anything but a trial for the Grand National. Of that sample, just six winners have gone on to compete in that year's Aintree event, with Forest Gunner coming closest to hitting the target when finishing fifth in 2005."

24 months have passed and little has happened to dispel that notion in terms of the winner, though the fact that Neptune Collonges finished second to Giles Cross in the 2012 renewal prior to tasting Aintree glory does mean that this contest has to be taken seriously.

Standard practice within Timeform when discussing anything relating to the Grand National, be it the race itself or a "trial", is to contact Aintree guru Phil Turner, who immediately suggested that Godsmejudge was "way overpriced" for Haydock, and it's easy to see why with the eight-year-old currently trading at 17.533/2. 

Largely progressive in his first season over fences up until Cheltenham last year, Godsmejudge appeared to have his limitations exposed on less -esting ground when finishing third in the National Hunt Chase, a lack of pace all too apparent in the closing stages. He then went to Ayr for the Scottish National where he coped far better with conditions, taking his form to a new level yet still demonstrating the now trademark characteristics of sound jumping and an uncomplicated style of racing.

Godsmejudge's two outings this term haven't yielded any success, though he did shape well on reappearance at Cheltenham in November, going fluently up with the pace for a long way before those exertions took their toll late on. A rare poor effort in the London National the following month is best forgiven, folding tamely as though amiss, and we know now that Alan King's yard as a whole was under the weather at that stage. A break ought to have done him the world of good and, just 9 lb higher than for his Ayr success and in just his second season over fences, Godsmejudge could yet do better still. Can he go one better than Neptune Collonges, by winning this and then scoring at Aintree? Only time will tell.

Heading the market at present is Monbeg Dude, who produced his best performance yet to defy a mark some 10 lb higher than for his Welsh National win last year when scoring at Cheltenham in December, helped in no small part by a much cleaner round of jumping than is usual for him. He has solid attributes for both this race and the Grand National, boasting plenty of stamina without being short of speed, but 7.413/2 looks pretty tight for a horse that can throw in multiple mistakes and that's without taking into account his 8 lb higher mark here.

Making much more appeal at a short price is Hawkes Point, second in the Welsh National to Mountainous in December. He had a piece of novice form, tied in the Gullinbursti, that made him potentially well treated and he proved that theory in no uncertain terms, looking a particularly strong stayer on just his second crack at an extreme distance. There is every chance that this race will turn into a real slog, which would play to his strengths, and after just six starts over fences he could easily have more to offer.

It's easy to see why Wychwoods Brook holds a prominent position in the market, boasting a success in a similar event on his CV gained just last month when beating Vintage Star on what was only his fourth start over fences. Clearly he was much the least exposed in that field and he relished the stamina test, something which wasn't much of a surprise given his pedigree, and a repeat or improvement upon that performance should see him go close, but the feeling is that this could end up being a slightly deeper contest than that one and he won't be able to afford the mistakes he made in the home straight on Saturday.

Sydney Paget and Well Refreshed have both proven their effectiveness for this kind of test but need to bounce back from below-par efforts last time whilst Merry King, though given a chance by the handicapper, is beginning to look as though attitude is holding him back from achieving all he might on these sort of events.

The one other interesting sort in the field is Our Father, usually so potent when fresh so it was no surprise to see him sent off favourite for the Hennessy Gold Cup in November. On the face of it his effort was disappointing but conditions went against him, at his best on soft or heavy, so failing to handle a sounder surface can't really be held against him. Freshened up by connections and with the ground likely to be in his favour, Our Father is certainly not one to write off.

This is an intriguing renewal of the Grand National Trial and, though it's said every year (I said it two years ago), one that could easily have a bearing on the big event itself in April. The three to concentrate on appear to be Godsmejudge, Hawkes Point and Our Father, all of whom make equal appeal yet only one is trading at a double-figure price. For that reason, side with Godsmejudge.

Recommendation:
Back Godsmejudge @ 17.533/2

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