Future Champions Day and its impact on the Guineas

The winter can be a tough time for Flat racing fans. Whilst the jumps season is in full flow and the shining beacon of the Cheltenham Festival beckons, the Flat racing fraternity are left with little in the way of domestic fare to sustain them. The only sign that there may be light at the end of the tunnel is the constant rumblings of the following year's 2000 Guineas market, occasionally jolted by news of a physical setback or by dazzling pre-season gallops.

It goes without saying the leading contenders can progress rapidly from a physical and mental perspective between two and three. As such progress occurs behind closed stable doors, there is an aura of mystery that surrounds the classic hopefuls as the turf season begins and the countdown to the first classic begins in earnest. Friday's Dewhurst and Middle Park Stakes, now postponed six days to form part of the new 'British Champions Weekend', are the last meaningful signposts we get to the 2000 Guineas before the winter sets in.

Current favourite for next year's Guineas is Ivawood, unbeaten in three starts and at 120p rated among Timeform's best juveniles of 2014. Although the Dewhurst, being over seven furlongs rather than six, is the more recognised Guineas trial, the fact connections have opted for the Middle Park should not be viewed as a negative with regards to possible running plans for 2015. Firstly, they have Estidhkaar for the Dewhurst- more on him shortly- and secondly, connections may prefer to wait until early next season to step Ivawood up in trip given that he's never encountered soft ground before and has tended to travel strongly in his races. That is not to say he won't stay the trip next May: his dam won at a one and a half miles and his family have plenty of winning form at a mile and further, but for the betting-minded amongst you his price of 1.774/5 for Friday's race and 8.88/1 for the Guineas both look to short to represent any value.

Ivawood may well shorten further for the Middle Park given he sets a clear standard on form and goes there fresh off an eight-week break. If ground conditions place the emphasis more on stamina and he finishes strongly in a well-run race, he may silence those who doubt his staying power and shorten for the Guineas itself too. Connections always have the option of the new three-year-old sprint at Royal Ascot if he does line up at Newmarket and fails to see out the trip, but at least after Friday's contest we'll know a little more about his stamina reserves.

Stablemate Estidhkaar's stamina reserves are not under such scrutiny, and with his two Group 2 performances looking strong form (he beat subsequent Solario Stakes winner Aktabantay by four and a half lengths in the Superlative Stakes) the Dewhurst looks the ideal race to sign off his juvenile campaign. It's as much Estidhkaar's attitude as his considerable ability that's likely to stand him in good stead if he lines up on the Rowley Mile next May, as despite occasionally showing signs of keenness he has seen his races out extremely well up to now.

In truth Estidhkaar's price of around 19.018/1 for next year's 2000 Guineas is a little surprising and although a lot of water has to pass under the bridge before the race, those of you who are inclined to such propositions could do a lot worse in terms of an ante-post wager. As for Friday, he looks likely to handle conditions which may just give him an edge when few are guaranteed to do so, but Ballydoyle send over one of an especially strong juvenile contingent, so nothing is for certain.

The aforementioned horse is Gleneagles, already a Group 1 winner in Ireland and only denied a five-timer on Arc day by the French stewards. He is co-favourite for Friday's race but half the price of Estidhkaar for the 2000 Guineas, probably due to their respective connections rather than their respective chances. In fact, given Gleneagles has already raced six times this season four of those at Group level, there may be a doubt as to how far he'll progress at three. However, a quick look at his pedigree- he's a brother to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Marvellous and his dam was a sister to Giant's Causeway- would suggest he may be able to buck the trend in that regard. Gleneagles' breeding also suggests there could be more to come from him at a mile, and whilst the soft going he'll encounter on Friday will be an unknown, back on a sounder surface next May he looks one of several live contenders for Ballydoyle. 

So there's a brief rundown of the main contenders for next year's 2000 Guineas set to star on Future Champions Day on Friday. Worsening ground conditions at Ascot and the feature races cutting up badly as a result may mean that we see more future champions crowned at Newmarket than at the main event at Ascot. Either way, history tells us that Friday's results will be key pieces of form to be studied over the winter, both for the 2000 Guineas and beyond.