Eclipse Preview: Keep Gosden's leading light on side at Sandown

If you'll permit me a slightly circuitous introduction, I'd like to start with a quote concerning Kate Winslet. Following her 2008 performance in Revolutionary Road, renowned film critic David Edelstein remarked "Is Winslet now the best English-speaking film actress of her generation? I think so". The Reading-born actress has achieved that rare mix of commercial success and critical acclaim which can elude even the finest actors, and yet an assessment of her career is not complete without mentioning her luckless run at the Oscars.

Five nominations and 13 years came and went between Kate Winslet's first trip to the Kodak Theatre and her finally scooping the award for best actress in 2009. Despite the huge fortune she amassed and widespread plaudits she received in the intervening period, the lack of Academy recognition seemed to hang over her public persona, a cross between the proverbial dark cloud and the elephant in the room. You imagine The Fugue would empathise, were that possible.

Like Kate Winslet, The Fugue has had a hugely successful career both commercially (her current career earnings stand at just under £2 million) and critically (she is currently Timeform's joint-highest rated filly on 128) but will probably be forever linked with near-misses. She should have won the Oaks as a three-year-old and if it hadn't been for repeated trouble-in-running then she could have added two Breeders' Cup victories and a Hong Kong Vase to her haul too.

In between those luckless runs she has put up some high-class performances, notably when winning last year's Irish Champion Stakes and running away with the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Her most recent run was particularly impressive, winning in a similar style to her 2013 Yorkshire Oaks romp but against stronger opposition. Her task was undoubtedly made easier by Treve underperforming, but the way in which she saw off a high-class colt in Magician (who had denied her Breeders' Cup glory in 2013) with such a modicum of effort proved her to be as strong as ever.

It must be said that The Fugue was disappointing in Eclipse last year, reportedly scoping dirty after finishing last of seven, but she holds leading claims of gaining compensation in this year's renewal. With the going currently advertised as good and a largely dry week forecast in Esher she seems likely to encounter her optimum conditions once again, and providing she's fully fit current odds of around 2.789/5 look fair for her to put up another stellar performance and set the record straight at Sandown.

For those who are after an ante-post proposition at slightly longer odds, William Haggas's Mukhadram makes some each-way appeal at a current price of around 16.531/2. Had he been ridden more forcefully in the Prince of Wales's Stakes last time he might have finished a lot better than fourth and it's possible that the overriding influence on how he fares on Saturday will be tactical once again.

The majority of the market principals are hold-up horses and even though Night of Thunder made the running last time, the Hannon team are unlikely to employ similar tactics on his first try at 10 furlongs. As a result, an opportunity might arise for Mukhadram to to steal a march. He would have finished closer to Al Kazeem in this race last year had he not met trouble in running, and with a clear passage and aggressive front-running tactics this time around it would be no surprise to see this consistent performer finish in the money once again, for all that his ability may restrict him to a supporting role.

The other horse who makes some appeal at similar odds is True Story; if you subscribe to the excuse that he didn't like the tacky ground at York and didn't handle the track at Epsom then he looks a generous price at 20.019/1. The level of form and Timefigure he performed to in the Fielden Stakes were both extremely strong and if the cheekpieces which Godolphin are reportedly considering have the desired effect, he could well outrun his price. He has more than enough pace for 10 furlongs and if everything falls right then he has sufficient ability to give the leading lights something of a shock.

Those that occupy the space in the market between the horses already discussed make far less appeal. Although both War Command and Verrazano both stayed on strongly enough at Ascot to merit some interest now they are stepped up in trip, neither look remotely good value at odds of 11.521/2 and 5.95/1 respectively. War Command probably has the better chance of the two given how much ground he made up in the St James's Palace Stakes and the juvenile form he has in the book, but he'd have to be much bigger to merit serious consideration. Verrazano was another who caught the eye last time behind Toronado but his biggest flops to date have both come at 10 furlongs and he looks another Ballydoyle horse destined to spend the rest of his career priced on reputation.

A final mention must go to Night of Thunder, who must be applauded for his effort at Ascot last time when trying to execute tactics which probably didn't suit him ideally. His stable have both Toronado and Olympic Glory for the top mile races and given that he's was running on strongly in the Guineas and that he's out of a Galileo mare, the step up in trip seems unlikely to pose a problem for him. The form from this year's 2000 Guineas is rock-solid and he's sure to be seen to better effect back under hold-up tactics, but odds of 4.03/1 look far too short even taking his weight allowance into consideration.

Such is the illustrious roll call of the Eclipse that a win for The Fugue on Saturday would see her place amongst the pantheon of great race mares assured. It would also go some way to alleviating the sense of injustice felt by her followers, although redemption for all involved ultimately lies at the Breeders' Cup. As for the manner of her victory? Providing she is fully fit and encounters her optimum conditions, there's no reason to suggest she won't improve from Ascot again. If that's the case, global recognition and worldwide acclaim look inevitable. And the winner is...

Recommendation:

Back The Fugue and Mukhadram E/W in the Eclipse at Sandown