Betfair Hurdle: A biased take on a competitive handicap

Bias is a wonderful thing; evident in newspapers, advertising, TV, fiction, across the internet and on the radio. Essentially any form of media/communication. Most outlets choose not to officially state their position, rather conducting their business from that standpoint, but it is usually plain in the way that they go about putting across information to the public.

This article is going to be incredibly biased but it shall be stated why: I think that Irving will win the Betfair Hurdle. Unfortunately, due to the volume of rain forecasted to hit Newbury this week, trainer Paul Nicholls has suggested that he might not run so writing this is going to be difficult, as it's impossible to tip Irving but equally difficult, for me at least, to put something up against him.

The case for Irving is obvious. A useful performer on the Flat in Germany, the six-year-old has taken particularly well to hurdles, not beating much to score, albeit impressively, on his first two outings but progressing again to win the Grade 2 Kennel Gate at Ascot in December. The way in which that race developed certainly played to his strengths with the emphasis being firmly on speed, but the style of Irving's success was impressive nonetheless. It has been said that the race wasn't yet in the bag and that Prince Siegfried, had he not fallen at the last, might have challenged him. Tosh.

With the ground at Newbury already described as soft, and with more rain forecast, it's understandable that Nicholls is giving plenty of thought to Irving's participation, particularly when considering the abundance of speed that he possesses. He'd be the one on the day if connections decide to go ahead but, as an ante-post punt, he's no good.

What's the best alternative then? It's not Irish Saint, who has been backed on account of his ability to handle testing conditions, as evidenced when posting a big career-best at Ascot last time. That career-best however came at just short of two and a half miles, with the five-year-old appearing to relish the step up in trip, and for all that he looks well-treated under a penalty, he needs to prove his effectiveness back at this trip, and there is little value in his price in any case.

The Nicky Henderson-trained Rolling Star is an interesting one, as he's twice looked a world-beater since joining Henderson but, on his three other starts, has disappointed. It's perhaps no coincidence that his two wins have come when the horse is fresh, so it's slightly surprising to see connections run him here rather than head straight for one of the Festivals, though that decision may have been influenced by his proven ability in the mud.

Dell' Arca and Cheltenian are the last two "obvious" ones, with the first mentioned successful in this season's Greatwood Hurdle on his first start for David Pipe. The handicapper put him up to a BHA rating of 136 after that win and he wasn't given the chance to show what he could do off his new mark in the Ladbroke Hurdle, hampered and unseated three out when yet to be asked for his effort, though he was doing enough to suggest that he could be competitive off it. He remains capable of better though, like Irish Saint, there is little play in his current price.

The one that makes most appeal towards the head of the market, aside from Irving, is Cheltenian, the Champion Bumper winner in 2011. His career has been interrupted by injury since, seen just twice in his first season over hurdles last term, firstly when finishing second to Minella Forfitness in a novices' hurdle at Doncaster before being thrown in a the deep end, just 20 days later, in the Supreme at Cheltenham. He was essentially found wanting for know-how at that stage, though he looked much more polished on his return at Uttoxeter in December, entitled to win by a wide margin but triumphing in the manner of one who would be making an impact in decent company. He gets that chance here, and may finally be able to kick-start his career over timber.

Time to gradually move towards the left-field, starting with Swing Bowler who is currently trading at 18.017/1. The seven-year-old, a daughter of top-class chaser Lady Cricket, enjoyed a fine first season over hurdles, winning her first three prior to finishing an excellent third in this race, beaten just over six lengths by My Tent Or Yours off a mark just 2 lb lower than that which she will race off here. A flop in the mares' hurdle at Cheltenham can be forgiven and, though she may lack match sharpness after 11 months off, she is a tempting price and may yet have more to offer after just five starts over hurdles.

Gibb River is another trading at a tempting price, currently available to back at 65.064/1 after a disappointing effort at Newbury over 19 furlongs in November. His run prior to that however, after an 18 month absence, was encouraging and is well worth bearing in mind with regards to his chances here, as he wasn't knocked about in a strong race at Ascot won by Pine Creek. Successful off a mark 2 lb higher than this in the past, Gibb River does have to put his latest effort behind him but he appears to have been overlooked in the market and may surprise a few.

It's possible to make a case for plenty of the others, particularly Chris Pea Green, Deep Trouble and Willie Mullins' raider Smashing, but they've all got it to do if Irving turns up.

On the off chance that he doesn't however it's worth having a couple of ante-post alternatives on side, and the one that makes most appeal is Swing Bowler. She's not yet fully exposed and finished an excellent third in this last year off a similar mark; if she's ready to go after a break, the 18.017/1 currently available would look very nice indeed. It's also tempting to have a small investment on Gibb River, another trading at a big price. He needs to bounce back, but it wouldn't be a massive surprise to see him do so and he could go well.

Recommendations:
Back Swing Bowler @ 18.017/1 & Gibb River @ 65.064/1 in the Betfair Hurdle

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