Ascot Gold Cup Preview: Mizzou looks must-bet material

The Irish have won seven of the last nine Gold Cups thanks largely to horses trained by Aidan O'Brien but also to Rite of Passage who struck for the Dermot Weld stable in 2010. Rite of Passage began his racing career in National Hunt Flat races and so did the latest Weld challenger Forgotten Rules who went right through to Group 2 winner in three unbeaten outings in 2014.

It's fair to say the form of the two-mile Long Distance Cup Forgotten Rules at Ascot last autumn has taken a few knocks- the second Biographer and third Pallasator both made inauspicious starts to the new season - but the winner arguably looked an improved model when extending his unbeaten start under a penalty in the Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan last month. That Group 3 was used as a stepping stone to Gold Cup success by Yeats (three times), Fame And Glory and Leading Light in recent years, and with Forgotten Rules shaping like he'll stay two and a half miles and open to further improvement, he looks the one to beat.

The other horse in the race with the 'p' symbol (potential for better) attached to its Timeform rating is Mizzou who actually made his racecourse debut last June, six weeks later than Forgotten Rules. Mizzou won his next three starts before finishing a close third in a listed race at Ascot, and he made a winning return stepped up to two miles at the track in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes in April.

By Galileo out of St Leger fifth Moments of Joy, herself out of a half-sister to Gold Cup winner Classic Cliché, Mizzou holds good claims of staying the Gold Cup distance and remains capable of even better form, while his attitude and versatility regards ground (winner on soft and firm) are other positives.

Mizzou's Sagaro win was franked when the runner-up Vent de Force cosily won the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown in late-May. Vent de Force is another colt who's still young enough at four to have more to offer, but he was beaten a comfortable-looking two lengths by Mizzou in the Sagaro and it's doubtful that the extra four furlongs here will help him turn the tables (he's worth a try over this far but is a strong traveller).

Simenon shaped well in a first-time hood when fifth in the Henry II on his first outing for ten months and it wouldn't be too big a surprise to see him step forward enough to reach the frame, remembering that he was beaten just a neck by Estimate in this race in 2013 and was fourth last year. Ryan Moore maintaining the partnership - his other options are possibly High Jinx and Havana Beat - would be no negative either.

Brown Panther is as admirable as they come, gaining another big-race win in the Dubai Gold Cup earlier in the year and a close second to Snow Sky in the Yorkshire Cup on his British return, but he finished tired when four and three quarter lengths third in this race in 2014 and may have to settle for a minor placing once again.

Last year's Sagaro/Prix Royal-Oak winner Tac de Boistron looked all over the winner in the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes on heavy ground at Chester only to be overhauled late on by Clever Cookie (in receipt of 7 lb from the runner-up). The pair hold sound form claims here, Clever Cookie having since followed up in the listed Grand Cup at York under a penalty, though the idea that rain would enhance their chances is a bit of a red herring as the first five in the betting - Forgotten Rules, Mizzou, Brown Panther, Vent de Force and Alex My Boy - have each won on soft ground themselves.

The other two to consider are the fascinating foreign raiders Bathyrhon from France and Alex My Boy from Germany (but trained by Mark Johnston in Yorkshire in 2013-14). Both horses have similar profiles - they won three times during a busy 2014 and landed their second starts back in 2015 - but Bathyrhon has the stronger form and is also proven over the trip.

To sum up, Forgotten Rules is the most likely winner but the discrepancy between his odds and those of Mizzou at this stage is too much, especially as ground faster than good (on which he's yet to race) may put the favourite's participation in doubt. Consequently it's the Luca Cumani-trained colt who's the one to back; the last two Sagaro winners to attempt to win the Gold Cup in the same season were both successful (Colour Vision in 2012 and Estimate in 2013). Simenon is recommended to those looking for one who can run a big race at a big price, though it's hard to see him outstripping the two younger guns mentioned.

Recommendation:
Back Mizzou in the Gold Cup