Tony Calvin: Star can shine at York though I fear the 'Johnston factor' striking again

I was massively taken by Muhaarar's Commonwealth Cup win at Royal Ascot and I fully expect him to see off Brazen Beau and the rest in the July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday.

But can I back him at around 3.613/5? No chance.

The fact of the matter is that you can put up several of these against him on their best form, and the way the markets operate these days it wouldn't surprise me were he available at 3-1+ on Saturday morning. So sit tight if you fancy him.

I was a fully paid-up member of the Muthmir fan club at the start of the season, but I must admit I was very disappointed that he couldn't win a weak King's Stand last time. Perhaps this easy 6f will suit him better and he was tempting win and place at around the 14-1 mark, but it is a race that I am happy to leave until I see the final decs and weekend prices on Friday afternoon.

Ayaar would be my idea of the favourite in the Bunbury Cup as I don't think he got the run of the race in the Hunt Cup and I can see this strong traveller being hard to kick out of the frame here over 7f.

I couldn't put you off him at around the 11.010/1 mark but, like Mount Logan, he was a fair bit bigger a couple of days ago and the two I'm interested are Suzi's Connoisseur and Horsted Keynes.

The former, bought out of Hugo Palmer's stable for 140,000gns last October, was ridden aggressively when leading on the fair side in the Wokingham last time, surprisingly so for a horse normally held up.

So in the circumstances he ran ok there, as he did in the Victoria Cup previously. But on both occasions I think far too much use was made of him and a reversion to more patient tactics will suit on a track that he ran three excellent races over 6f last summer, including when completely missing the start at this meeting last year but still finishing a good fifth.

I suspect this has been the long-term plan, and he can handle whatever the weather throws at us, too, being effective on both fast and soft ground.

He is well worth a bet at 25-1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook.

He is my only play in this race at this stage but I think Horsted Keynes is interesting at 34.033/1, not least for the fact that he goes well fresh and is back on the same mark as when second in the Buckingham Palace Stakes last year.

But he hasn't been seen out since February, and maybe has had his problems since Dubai, and he may be one to look at more closely if he gets the green light to run on Thursday morning.

In the John Smith's Cup at 15:25 at York it has been no surprise at all to see Mount Logan attracting support in the last 24 hours.

According to the most recent reports, he looks more likely to take his chance than stablemate Ajman Bridge - though things change, so keep an eye out in the press - and he is officially 1lb well in after finding trouble in-running when a length fourth to Mahsoob in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot.

He has a very attractive and progressive profile for this race. However, he has shortened a couple of points in the last day or so, and now trades as the 9.28/1 favourite on the exchange, so we have missed the boat a bit in that respect.

In fact, I would fancy his stablemate (perhaps crucially, also in the same ownership) more at 16-1+ but the latest reports on the Luca Cumani website suggest that they view him as a 1m4f horse, though personally I think a strongly-run race around here over this trip could be ideal. He flattened out a bit over 1m4f at Ascot to my eye, for all that he ran a blinder.

Remember, he would be 5lb well in here on his Duke Of Edinburgh second last time, where his rider dropped his whip too, but if the stable are saying that he may side-step the race we obviously can't play him ante-post.

As ever, I respect the William Haggas pair of entries - South African Grade 1 winner In the Fast Lane would be a fascinating runner on her debut for the yard - especially as he has won this race twice in the last four years. But the one I like at the prices is Sennockian Star.

Now, I am the first to admit that I just can't make rhyme nor reason of the Mark Johnston yard. In fact, after tipping and fancying Ifwecan like mad on Saturday and seeing him run dismally to beat one home (his stablemate Mister Universe, by the way) I tweeted that "I could live til I am 100 and still not work out the yard".

Plenty agreed.

They throw loads of darts and plenty of them stick, and unfortunately for this column my mood wasn't improved when the subsequent Johnston 1-2 at Haydock saw Notarised beat last week's 10-1 ante-post play Watersmeet.

And I am fully aware that I tipped Sennockian Star on the only occasion he has run a stinker on his last four starts.

He is an in-and-out horse but there is no way that he should be trading 16-1 given that he is 2lb well-in after his ½ length second to Mahsoob at Royal Ascot, especially as Franny Norton used plenty of him early to get across from a wide draw.

He is an in-form, well-handicapped horse with course form - indeed he finished a fair sixth in this race last year - and he won't be far away if he is on a going day and with a decent draw.

But he is a Mark Johnston horse, so what do I know...


Recommended Bets
Back Suzi's Connoisseur each way at 25-1 with Betfair Sportsbook in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on Saturday
Back Sennockian Star each way at 16-1 with Betfair Sportsbook in the John Smith's Cup at York on Saturday