Tony Calvin: Cloudy the bet Too get the job done at Haydock on Saturday

Mullins' second sting a live hope if taking his chance

Saturday's Grade 1 Sodexo Clarence House Stakes at Ascot is exactly the kind of race that bookmakers hate to price up - and the only saving grace for them is that there are only seven entries, so at least the each way terms are just ¼ the odds 1,2.

The big problem for them here is the absence of definitive running plans for Un De Sceaux, who ranges from 8-15 to 4-5 with the fixed-odds bookmakers, and trades at 1.814/5 on the exchange.

So little wonder why there is such a divergence of opinion around the price of the favourite in this ante-post book.

Given that he is a top-priced 13-8 for the Champion Chase at the Festival, you'd have thought that punters would have been falling over themselves to take the 10-11 available on Monday - it finally went to 4-5 on Tuesday morning, but probably just as a result of him shortening on the exchange - given that he only faces a maximum of six rivals at the weekend.

But with stablemate Felix Yonger in the race, perhaps there is a small doubt in punters' minds about whether the favourite will turn up on Saturday - and they both have the option of the Tied Cottage at Punchestown at the end of the month - so they are largely keeping their powder dry until 10am on Thursday when the final decs are known. At the moment, at least.

I suspect that he will run - and that certainly appears the plan - but I hope that Felix Yonger will accompany him on the ferry/plane too, as to a large degree this Grade 1 winner is the forgotten horse of the Mullins' two-mile chasers and a strongly-run 2m in the Champion Chase (which looks assured if Un De Sceaux and Special Tiara rock up) could play to his strengths.

The only problem is that his price for that Cheltenham race has come down from 33-1 non-runner no-bet this time last week, to just 20-1 and 16-1, and the value has largely gone.

I was tempted to tip him at 8-1 with the Betfair Sportsbook for Ascot on Saturday, but he is clearly not a definite runner either and I'll give the race a reluctant swerve at the moment.

Curtis mare to do a Fine job if she lines up

It looks like the Mares' Hurdle is the intended target for Willie Mullins' Vroum Vroum Mag at Ascot on Saturday but no-one has priced this up at the time of writing - she will be heavy odds-on when someone does - but there is a market for handicap chase at 15:35, and one that interests me is Doing Fine at 15.014/1.

His supporters could be forgiven for thinking "once bitten, twice shy" here given that he was the best backed horse ante-post for last week's Classic Chase at Warwick, only not to be declared at the overnight stage.

So if he did run in this mile-shorter race it would certainly be something of a major re-think by his yard, but it is one that I think could be a very wise move in what are sure to be very testing conditions (plenty of rain is forecast on Friday).

Doing Fine is actually a course and distance winner over hurdles and while all his form since has been over a lot further, this lesser test on a stiff track on deep ground could suit him, and he looks on a decent mark on 134 on a couple of pieces of form.

His stable were out of form, and his normal tongue tie was missing, when he was pulled up on his last start in November - they are hardly in blistering nick now, admittedly - and a big positive about this horse is that he goes so well when fresh.

Considering good ground wouldn't have been ideal, he ran a very encouraging race over an extended 2m7f at Chepstow in October and a 2lb rise for that effort - they pulled 11 lengths clear of the fourth - was fair.

The big question mark is whether he will turn up at Ascot, and will we get a run for our money.

On the plus side he doesn't have any other weekend options and there are only 13 entries for this 70k race, but against that he is entered in the Skybet Chase on January 30, so connections may opt to wait for that.

And Rebecca Curtis also has Tara Road in here, and this course winner is also of great interest as well having dropped 9lb after three runs in October and November.

On balance, I think it is best to sit and wait. Boring I know, but we are talking about your hard-earned here - mine is anything but - so you can't be blasé and throw about lazy tips.

Cloudy can do the business in Peter Marsh

There is also some good racing at Haydock, with the Supreme Hurdle Trial at 14:05 and the Peter Marsh at 15:15.

Running plans are up in the air for many in the hurdle it seems, including the favourite, but I am going to give Cloudy Too another chance in the 3m handicap chase. Yes, predictable, I know.

I was getting quite excited at one stage in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last time - he traded at 2.56 in running - and although he was beaten 13 lengths in the end, that was a big step forward from his previous runs this season, as he showed a lot more enthusiasm for the game and stuck to his guns well up the straight. And connections were a lot more enthused, too.

He goes well here, he is certain to get his heavy ground and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb from his last run.

The problem is that he will be 2lb out of the handicap if either Virak or Third Intention stand their ground - they are set to give him 22lb, which normally wouldn't be an issue, but the minimum weight is 10st 4lb in this race - but I can live with that possibility. We know that he is thrown in on his form of two seasons ago.

At 10-1 ¼ the odds 1,2,3,4 he is worth one last chance in a race much weaker than its numbers suggest, and an each-way interest with the Betfair Sportsbook. I won't be going in too hard myself, though.

There are 21 entries at the moment, so it is a fair to assume there could be less than 16 runners come race-time on Saturday. Win only at 12.011/1 is a fair option for exchange-only punters, too.

No early value in Ireland

Faugheen and Douvan are heavy odds-on favourites for the Irish Champion Hurdle and Irish Arkle respectively at Leopardstown on Sunday, and I can't see much mileage in those races at this stage.

Betfair Hurdle draws ever closer

The market for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February is beginning to take shape and the early one for money is Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls' Modus, into 8-1 from an opening 14-1 in places.

He undoubtedly is of interest - you can easily forgive him his run in near-unraceable conditions at Taunton last time - but I can't see much mileage in him at the current odds, this far in advance of a race which will attract 20+ runners on the day.

It is also the richest handicap hurdle in the UK, so expect the race to be full of plenty of other "plot" horses on the day, and there could have been a few in action in the race won by Henry Higgins at Leopardstown on Sunday.

We will revisit the Betfair Hurdle nearer the time, perhaps next week.


Recommended Bets

Back Cloudy Too at 10-1 each way ¼ the odds 1,2,3,4 in the Peter Marsh (Sportsbook)
Back Cloudy Too to Win @ 12.011/1 in the Peter Marsh (Exchange)