Tony Calvin: Don't miss the beat on O'Meara's Earth Drummer in Cambridgeshire

There must have been a sigh the sound of a cruise liner docking in Rayners Lane when the sponsors saw that Aidan O'Brien was responsible for 16 of the 29 horses at the original entry stage of the St Leger on July 21, which effectively meant that betting on the race has been in limbo ever since.

But the race is beginning to take some kind of shape after events on the track of the past week or so - and today's forfeit stage - and they have seen Order Of St George emerge from the pack as Ballydoyle's number one contender, in the betting at least.

However, you can't help feeling that those who have backed him into favouritism at 5.24/1 on the exchange are taking a bit of a risk at this stage, given the number of late withdrawals we have had - and I'm not just talking Group 1 events - in big ante-post races this season.

Indeed, the whole subject of day-of-race non-runners and the resulting changing place terms, is a massive problem for punters.

That's a discussion for another time, but it would definitely concern me when it comes to Order Of St George lining up in the Leger on September.

He was available at 8-1 in the immediate aftermath of his romp in the Irish St Leger Trial on soft ground at the Curragh on Sunday and has now been backed into half those odds, but the prospect of faster ground at Doncaster would trouble me.

Not that he doesn't go on better ground - he was beaten only a short head by stablemate Bondi Beach off levels on good back in June - but O'Brien was keen to point out that dig suits this one more, whereas faster conditions play more to his Voltigeur runner-up's strengths.

It would concern me anyway if I was playing at 4-1 three weeks ahead of the race - setbacks occur, as well as questions marks, and second thoughts, over ground - and in any case you could easily argue that two of his stablemates have better form claims after their runs at York.

Don't get me started on the decision to let the result stand at York, but clearly Bondi Beach ran a blinder to be beaten only ½ length by Storm The Stars considering he was taken over the track and bumped twice by the winner.

And don't downplay Fields Of Athenry's fifth off a mark of 118 in the Ebor, where he was arguably not seen to best effect by the way the race was run.

No, there are simply too many doubts about running plans at this stage for me to get involved, though the English representation seems to consist of only Storm The Stars and Mr Singh at this stage, while I can't think of too many likely lads or lasses to be supplemented for the race on September 7th.

*****

There has to be a compelling price reason to get involved in either the Cambridgeshire or Cesarewitch at this stage of proceedings, especially as the Betfair Sportsbook are one of the firms who regularly offer enhanced place terms, perhaps even the first six, on these types of handicap on the day.

And you never know, kind people like Roger Charlton may withdraw ante-post fancies like Quest For More so others can get a run.....

That said, I have to take a chance and put up Earth Drummer at 25-1, win only, with the Betfair Sportsbook for the Cambridgeshire on September 26th at Newmarket after an eye-catching run at York.

I have no idea if this race is the target for the horse but at 25-1 I am tempted in, as he travelled as much the best horse for a long way in the extended 1m2f handicap on the Knavesmire on Saturday - he traded at 2.47/5 in running - before perhaps not getting home.

That may seem a stupid thing to say given that he was only just touched off in a three-way photo over 1m4f at Meydan in January.

But he was doing all his winning between 7f and 1m1f103yd last season after joining David O'Meara from Jim Bolger in the summer and he ran a blinder when second at Ascot over 1m in the Shergar Cup on his first start since January earlier this month, and that form has worked out really well.

The winner and third haven't raced since but the fourth Alfred Hutchinson was just touched off by Chil The Kite at York and fifth Nakuti won a Group 3 at Sandown at the weekend.

This smooth traveller is just the kind of "exposed" horse that O'Meara excels with, and he is worth a long-range Cambridgeshire punt.

*****

I suspect Kodi Bear will take the world of beating at Goodwood on Saturday in the Celebration Mile after a blistering win at Salisbury last time, but at around the 3.02/1 mark in that contest that isn't telling you much.

Recommended Bet

Back Earth Drummer win only at 25-1 for the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Sep 26th with the Betfair Sportsook

*as well as Tony's weekly antepost column you can read all his thoughts on live Channel 4 races in the Horse Racing Tips section here on Betting.Betfair.