Tony Calvin: Drying ground gives Arc outsiders a chance

The ground at Longchamp is currently soft but it is sun all the way in the Paris forecast next week - or is it this week, as I never know what to write when filing for Sunday? - and temperatures of 20 degrees and cloudless skies on Sunday.

And that dry and warm forecast must be a concern to connections of Treve - she looks set to drift from 1.991/1 as a result - and possibly of those of New Bay, who was very impressive in the Niel on testing ground but who hasn't raced on good ground or faster since winning a conditions race on the track in April.

The only time Treve has raced on officially fast ground was when she only finished third in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot last season - though she wasn't in the best nick physically then, admittedly - and who knows just how much that remarkable six-length win in the Vermeille last time, where she hung late on, took out of her?

And 5-1 chance New Bay has never raced on good to firm, so at the very least it would be an unknown for him.

They clearly take a big chunk out of the Arc market so the potential for a big market move is present.

The problem is which one.

Even though I don't particularly like the profile, given this is his seventh start of the season and he has been on the track since April, Golden Horn looks a fair price at 7.87/1 and a possible shortener. He wasn't that far off his Epsom/Sandown best when winning the Irish Champion Stakes last time, and the extra 2f and quickening ground are clearly no problems for him.

But, bizarrely, it looks like his stablemate Jack Hobbs may go to Ascot instead of Longchamp if the ground dries up. I was under the impression that it was good to firm at Epsom, and when he went on to win the Irish Derby by five lengths. But there you go, that's racing these days it seems. Safety first.

And that leads you to the placed Irish Champion Stakes horses. Free Eagle clearly wasn't allowed to show how good he may have been at Leopardstown, and I can see the case for Found improving for the step up to 1m4f on decent ground.

The problem is that both are unproven over the trip, though, and have a class gap to overcome with a few of these.

No, the horse I keep on coming back to is Flintshire at 50.049/1, but there is a good reason he is available at that price. He is only 50-50 to run by all accounts.

The latest vibes from the Andre Fabre camp suggest that they will make a decision on whether he runs after he works at the start of the week, and they will also monitor the ground, and therefore the likely opposition.

Apparently, they are keen to go to the Breeders' Cup Turf fresh, a race in which he finished ½ length second to Main Sequence at Santa Anita this year. And of course the owner also has New Bay in the race.

But, given the concerns around most, if not all, of the main opposition surely they will be keen to roll the dice on drying ground. And after the horse easily won a Grade 1 at Saratoga last time, racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe did say: "It's hugely important to get a win like this before the Arc." That is encouraging.

So that gives hope that he will be allowed to take his chance, and if they read the formbook, they will increase their positivity, too.

He has taken a while to warm to his task this season but prior to that win in the States last time he momentarily looked to have Treve in trouble in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud, eventually beaten 1 ¼ lengths but still 2 ½ lengths clear of the high-class Dolniya in third. And he was clear second to Treve in the Arc last season.

If Treve underperforms, you can make a fair case for him being the most likely beneficiary in the likely conditions.

We may not even get a run for our money but at odds of 50.049/1 on Betfair, I am playing.

I also quite like the look of Grosser Preis Von Baden winner Prince Gibraltar at 90.089/1, and I am going to throw a few quid at him, too.

Now, it takes a leap of faith to see him as a likely winner, and drying ground may not be ideal, but then again that is why he is a 89-1 poke.

But we are dealing with a last-time out Group 1 winner here who ran well in the race last year when only beaten 4 ½ lengths into seventh. And one for whom the inadequate trip, and his jockey going too soon, was more responsible for his earlier defeat in a York 1m2f88yd Group 2 race than the prevailing good to firm ground, so perhaps the going won't be an issue at all.

Given the way the top of the market shapes up, I am happy to take two outsiders against the field.

Recommended Bets

Back Flintshire at 50.049/1 in the Arc
Back Prince Gibraltar at 90.089/1 in the Arc